Cooler than average waters in the equatorial Pacific, symptomatic of a moderately strong La Nina pattern, stopped 2011 from besting 2010’s El Nino-fueled near-record global warmth. But of the La Nina years on record, 2011 ranked as the warmest according to data from NOAA and NASA.
Considering all years in records dating back to 1880, 2011 was about the 10th warmest year the two agencies reported today.
Both agencies calculated 2011’s global average temperature to be 0.92 F above average. This placed 2011 as 9th warmest overall in NASA’s record compared to a tie for 11th warmest in NOAA’s.
The unusually warm years keep mounting. NOAA said all 11 years of the 21st century rank among the 13 warmest. And NASA noted 9 of the top 10 warmest years in its record have occurred since 2000, the lone exception being 1998 (tied with 2010 as the warmest year).
The string of warm years in the last decade is linked to rapidly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases NASA said.
“Higher temperatures today are largely sustained by increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide,” NASA wrote in a press release.
Although La Nina depressed the global average temperature in 2011 to the second coolest in the 21st century to date, it still matched the second warmest year of the 20th century NOAA said.
NASA said today La Nina “is peaking” but stopped short of saying whether a return of El Nino, associated with warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is imminent.
“It’s always dangerous to make predictions about El Niño, but it’s safe to say we’ll see one in the next three years,” said James E. Hansen, director of NASA’s Global Institute for Space Studies. “It won’t take a very strong El Niño to push temperatures above 2010.”
As soon as El Nino returns, Hansen predicts record-breaking global warmth.
La Nina pattern elevated U.S. extreme weather in 2011
While global temperatures modestly cooled off, an amped-up polar jet stream - characteristic of La Ninas - charged an unending wave of weather extremes in the U.S. NOAA, which had previously documented 12 billion dollar weather disasters in 2011, added two more to the list today:
* Tropical Storm Lee (early September) - which caused record flooding across the Northeast states, especially Pennsylvania and New York.
* A Rockies and Midwest severe weather outbreak (July 10-14) which included tornadoes, hail and high winds.
It also reported the historic October 29 snowstorm that paralyzed parts of the Northeast may be added to the list.
While NOAA announced 2011 set a record for most billion dollar disasters since 1980, at least one researcher says the record is questionable due to NOAA’s incomplete economic analysis of weather extremes early in the record.
Irrespective of the legitimacy of the billion dollar weather disaster record, extremes in drought and flooding covered the largest portion of the U.S. on record. 121 weather stations recorded their wettest year on record, 45 their driest, 17 their warmest and 2 their coolest. The Northeast had its wettest year on record, and the state of Texas its driest (and hottest summer).
As we previously reported, the record wet (near and north of the jet stream) and record dry conditions (south of the jet stream) were in amazingly close proximity, especially during the spring. The strong contrast between the neighboring moist and dry airmasses generated high levels of atmospheric instability, leading to a record-breaking tornado season. 1150 tornadoes were confirmed in the spring, NOAA said. And the 551 tornado-fatalties were the most on record since 1950.
Top weather events of 2011