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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 05/20/2011

Forecast: A few showers today, then cracking the overcast and heading for the 80s

Coastal Flood Warning until 2 a.m. Sat. for D.C./Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria - moderate flooding expected along the upper tidal Potomac (High tides today: Key Bridge - 11:13 a.m. and 11:55 p.m.; Washington Channel - 10:48 a.m. and 11:30 p.m.; Alexandria - 11:06 a.m. and 11:38 p.m.). Flood Warning until evening for the Potomac River (Montgomery/Fairfax/Loudoun/Frederick).

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Less in the way of clouds, showers, mugginess. Temps rising through the 70s. Grab an umbrella just in case.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny, p.m. showers/t’showers possible. Mid-70s. | Tonight: Isolated evening storm, then clearing. Mid-50s to near 60. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny. Upper 70s to lower 80s. | Sunday: Increasing clouds, late day shower possible. Low-to-mid 80s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

It’s finally happening. Sunshine building, and us eventually breaking through the 80 degree mark! We’re entering a warm regime of air for the forseeable future, but sunshine may still be limited a bit. Today won’t be so bad, with some showers or a storm threatening — especially in the afternoon. Focus your outdoor activties on Saturday — it looks grand — because, by Sunday, we could see a shower again (but not too likely). Monday & Tuesday could prove cloudier again with a risk of showers and storms, but it appears less widespread than recent. For now, enjoy the increased chances of sunshine and warmth, right?


Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Friday): For Bike To Work Day, Mother Nature will mix it up, but only a little, with a bit more sunshine. Clouds are still around and filter the sunshine from time to time, but high temperatures should still get into the mid-70s (maybe upper somewhere). Yes we still have an outside chance at a shower throughout, but increasing chances for a thunderstorm and more scattered showers (40% chance) during the afternoon. Finally, this cut-off low pressure system is heading away! Confidence: Medium

Thundercast:

Probability: 40%
Coverage: Isolated to scattered
Most Likely Timing: After 2pm

Tonight: Just a small (20-25% chance) of showers or an isolated thunderstorm as the Nats play at Camden Yards this evening. As the evening wears on, for both D.C. & Baltimore, shower chances diminish rapidly. If you can - check radar before heading to out - I bet you could sneak in some patio seating for dinner with not-too-shabby temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Ultimately, just before dawn, lows should bottom in the 50s in the suburbs to lower 60s around Metro Center. Oh & enjoy the comfortable light breeze out of the northwest. Huzzah, drier air! Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading to see how long sunshine lasts...

Tomorrow (Saturday): What is that bright orb in the sky blinding me? Mostly sunny skies should indeed return! Only a few fair-weather cumulus clouds for our afternoon. Ok and perhaps a 10%, remote chance, of a quick shower. Highs should easily make it into the upper 70s, perhaps lower 80s with continual sunshine. Only a light northwest breeze, sensible only periodically, will move a few leaves. Assuming it doesn’t shower, would you rate this10? I’m at least going to dust off the Nice Day Sunshine stamp! Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: It’s partly cloudy, but no showers appear to threaten. Evening temperatures stay in the pleasant 70s for dinner. A drier airmass, however, means temperatures fall a moderate amount — back down to the upper 50s to lower 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

Sunday : We see a few more clouds than Saturday, but sun should generally win the battle especially early. Our question mark will be: how fast does a warm front approach the region? A Midwest storm system may throw a band of showers toward us. Right now it appears it will mainly cloud-up our afternoon, with any potential showers approaching closer to evening time. High temperatures should still hit the lower (perhaps even middle) 80s. I don’t want to oversell the shower chances — they stand at only about 10-20% chance during daytime hours. Confidence: Low-Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Sunday night may see shower chances increase to 30% after sunset. Even if not showering or storming, skies stay mostly cloudy. Overnight low temperatures are warm, in the low-to-mid 60s thanks to the warm front passing by. Confidence: Low-Medium

Monday should be quite mild, though we could have some additional cloudiness in the murkier air south of the warm front. Overall chance of showers & thunder is around 20% with as high as 40% in the mountains to the west. We’ll mainly have to watch to see if any storms roll off the hills late day, and any could be strong. As far as temperatures this season, highs near the mid-80s should feel toasty. Confidence: Low

Tuesday could remind us a little of the last broken-record we experienced: more of the same from Monday, with a risk of late-day showers/storms (20%). Temperatures should again get into the 80s, but uncertainty on overall cloudiness means a range from near-80 to mid-80s is possible. Confidence: Low

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 05/20/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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