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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 08/20/2011

Forecast: A peaceful start to the weekend, but Sunday could be stormier

Code Orange air quality alert today — unhealthy conditions for sensitive groups

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
It's the weekend, and it's pretty decent! Still, warmer than it *should* be (90+ likely) and fairly humid.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny. Near 90 to low 90s. | Tonight: Partly cloudy. Upper 60s to low 70s. | Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered showers and t’storms. Upper 80s to low 90s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

As Jason noted yesterday, we’re in the running (now .2 degrees ahead through yesterday) for hottest summer on record. So, what are the odds? For the short term we stay warm, though intermixed shower and storms and a cold front, could end up limiting our 90-degree days into early next week. The end of the month is still too far out to make much more than guess on, but we should stay near the lead. For those playing at home: To exactly tie, we need roughly high/low combos of 87/69 (or similar that add up to the same when combined) through the 29th, then 86/68 to finish.

Today (Saturday): If you weren’t a fan of watching for or dodging storms the last few days, today should have significantly less of that to think about. In fact, we should see plenty of sun intermixed with a few periods of more numerous clouds. Highs should near or pass 90 many spots, with low 90s perhaps being the norm of the day. There’s no real mechanism for storms, but heat and humidity (plus some added surface moisture form recent) could help trigger an isolated (15% chance) shower or t’shower that could contain heavy rain. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: The slight risk of rain dwindles as the sun disappears below the horizon. A pretty typical late-summer evening and night is on tap, which I’m personally a big fan of! Temperatures largely in the upper 70s and low 80s near sunset should fall off to lows in the upper 60s for the suburbs to the low-or-mid 70s downtown. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through the beginning of next week...

Tomorrow (Sunday): A fairly potent disturbance heads through on Sunday, which means showers and storms are likely (50-60% chance). We seem to be in a rainier pattern, but this is still fraught with uncertainty. The timing of clouds/storms might be the biggest question, as there is some indication there could be rain around early which may subdue (or push east) later-day storms. If not, we’re probably ripe for scattered strong to severe p.m. storms that could produce localized flash flooding and/or high winds/hail. Depending on clouds, highs range from the upper 80s to low 90s. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: There could be some evening storminess lingering around, but the cold front and associated rains eventually head out to sea on a northwest breeze. This means drier and cooler air comes streaming in. Lows could dip toward the low 60s in the coolest suburbs, and even the city might reach the upper 60s if lucky. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Just in time for the new work week — if anyone’s working at this point in August — Monday and Tuesday could end up being rather pleasant on the whole. Both temperatures and humidity levels should be down, with highs in the mid-80s (maybe upper) seemingly most likely at this point, along with lows mainly in the 60s. We’re close enough to a fast jet stream to the north that we’ll need to watch for late-day storm risks, but the odds seem minimal (20-30%) from here, at least for now. Confidence: Medium

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 08/20/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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