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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 08/24/2011

Forecast: Another fine day in D.C. area as Irene’s forecast fluctuates

Hurricane Tracking Center with Tweets from NHC

8:50 a.m. Irene Update: Models are continuing to shift the track of Irene, now a category 3 storm with winds near 115 mph, as it comes up the coast Friday-Sunday. That eastward trend has been somewhat consistent for a couple days now, which decreases (but doesn’t yet eliminate) the chances for major (or possibly even moderate) impacts in the D.C. metro area. Areas east of the Chesapeake Bay, especially toward and along the coast, are still at risk to get hammered pretty hard with tropical storm conditions, unless the track shifts even further to the east.

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Another rain-free day, just a touch warmer/more humid than Tues. The lofty digit assumes we go quake-free, too.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly to partly sunny. Mid-to-upper 80s. | Tonight: Increasing humidity. Upper 60s to low 70s. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny & more humid. 50% chance of p.m. storms. Upper 80s to low 90s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

While the forecast track for Hurricane Irene continues to fluctuate, here in Washington and vicinity we have ourselves a third straight day of pleasant weather, albeit a touch warmer and more humid than the past two. Tomorrow brings storm chances back to the area by afternoon or evening. And then the focus turns to the weekend, which could feature anything from flooding rain and high winds, to some sun and gentler breezes - all depending on the track of Irene.

Today (Wednesday): It’s another fine day here in and around D.C. with mostly sunny morning skies, possibly turing partly cloudy during the afternoon, and highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. While humidity is a bit higher than the past couple days, thanks to an increasing breeze from the south, it’s still on the low side for August. Let’s hope the nice weather isn’t rudely interrupted again by the earth below. Confidence: High

Tonight: Mugginess increases more noticeably this evening into the overnight, though overall it’s still a perfectly pleasant evening to be out and about with temperatures dropping toward and into the 70s. Under partly cloudy skies, overnight lows bottom in the upper 60s to low 70s. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Thursday): Our weather luck runs out tomorrow with a 50% chance of afternoon or evening showers and storms, courtesy an approaching cold front. Before any rain, skies are partly sunny with warmer highs - in the upper 80s to low 90s - and at least moderate humidity. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: A 50% chance of evening showers and storms gives way to clearing skies overnight as the cold front heads away to the east. Lows should end up in the mid-60s to near 70. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Friday looks like a pretty decent day around here, as Irene edges closer to the Southeast coast. Partly to mostly sunny skies should help highs to the mid-to-upper 80s with moderate humidity and maybe - although it’s looking less and less likely - an isolated afternoon shower or storm. Increasing clouds Friday night with a continuing chance of an isolated shower or storm. Confidence: Medium

The weather this weekend is completely dependent on Irene’s track and intensity, both of which are still in question. Possible scenarios here in the D.C. metro area range from partly sunny and a bit breezy, to heavy rain and damaging wind gusts to near 70 mph (note that’s gusts, not sustained winds). Highs should be in the 80s either way. If we do see any heavy rain and high winds, the most likely time would be late Saturday and Sunday, with the odds of such increasing the further east you go, especially east of the Chesapeake Bay to the coastline - it's that area which, as of now, stands the best chance of seeing major impacts from Irene. Confidence:Low-Medium

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 08/24/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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