Forecast: Cloudy with slight shower risk today; unsettled into Christmas

Today's Daily Digit

 

A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

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Clouds and colder temps don't do us much good today.
 
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Today: Cloudy and cooler. Slight shower risk. 45-50. | Tonight: Cloudy with shower risk (30%). 40-45. | Tomorrow: Rain. Warmer. 56-61.| Get Express Forecast by E-mail

Unfortunately, our area is in the middle of a meteorological traffic pile-up as weather systems line up to roll through between now and Christmas. It’s quite the muddled mess. If this had been a colder pattern, we might have been able to pile-up the snow. Instead, we are are in the midst of milder weather and rain chances. Even so, there is still a very slight chance that we could inch cold enough Christmas Eve or day to mix in some snowflakes. I believe the odds are still really low at this point given the lack of a big cold air supply.

Snow Potential Index: 1 (→) - Still a very slight risk of flakes on Christmas, but lack of big cold air access makes this idea tough sledding.

 

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Today (Tuesday): A frontal system lifting through the area should see most of its precipitation impacts north and west of here, but we could still see some scattered showers (20% chance mainly in afternoon). Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies and light breezes from the north to east keep our temperatures lower today (relative to yesterday) from the middle 40s to near 50. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Those cloudy skies continue and as winds shift to come from the south, I don’t expect temperatures to drop off much at all. We’ll range it in the low-to-mid 40s with a continued 30% chance of showers (higher towards morning). Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Low pressure travels from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast, pulling rain into our area. The good news is that we are on the warm side of the low (think counter-clockwise circulation!), and mild air is pulled into the region. Highs should surge into the mid-to-upper 50s with a few low 60s conceivable. Rain likelihood is about 70%, but overall totals should not be that heavy as the main system passes west and north of us. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Can’t rule out an evening shower yet. Partial clearing means partly cloudy skies with lows dropping back down to near 40 in the outer suburbs, but only mid-to-upper 40s into the city. Confidence: Medium

Thursday might be our best day of this week as we get a break in between storm systems for most of the day and residual warmth from Wednesday’s surge allows us to stay in the mid-to-upper 50s. Skies are mostly cloudy, but if we get more sunshine breaks in the afternoon, we might be able to warm a bit more. Rain chances increase toward evening with rain likely (60%) Thursday night and lows in the 40s. Confidence: Medium

Friday sees the rain ending in the morning with some partial afternoon clearing. Highs still manage to be in the low-to-mid 50s, but the risk is warmer if we get more p.m. sunshine. Friday night finds partly cloudy skies and lows in the low 30s outer ‘burbs to upper 30s for the inner urban core. Confidence: Medium

The holiday weekend currently looks variable to mostly cloudy with rain chances throughout. Timing the next weather system continues to be challenging, but the general view right now is that this one will pass either over or just to the east of us. This means highs will probably hold back in the 40s to maybe around 50, while lows should be in the 30s to low 40s. Having lows in the 30s offers a chance of snowflakes, particularly toward Christmas Eve or morning toward the western and northern suburbs. My best guess right now is that the cold air supply will be insufficient to supply the white stuff. But we’ll keep an eye on it! Confidence: Low-Medium.