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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 03/04/2012

Forecast: Cooler today. Could be cold enough for a few flakes late tonight and tomorrow

9:10 p.m. Update: While flurries or snow showers are possible Monday from early morning through mid-afternoon, the best chance of any flakes accumulating a dusting or more remains south of the area, from near or south of Fredericksburg toward points south. That’s where the strongest part of a clipper system’s energy is expected to track through...

...The latest NAM model does shift the track further north than before, which increases the chance of conversational flakes around the metro area, especially southern parts. But temperatures mainly above freezing still limit the potential for accumulation in and around D.C. That said, any additional shift to the north could put the metro area into dusting territory.

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
South and east may lose points with a few showers, but north and west may gain some with more sun. Either way it's ~10-15 deg below yesterday.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny. Chance of a few showers mainly S/E. Upper 40s to near 50. | Tonight: Flurries late? Upper 20s to low 30s. | Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy. Chance of flurries or rain/snow showers. Low-to-mid 40s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Cooler air makes its way into the region today, as well as the chance of a shower or two. The cool air sticks around long enough to give us a chance of flurries or snow showers late tonight and tomorrow, especially south of D.C. For now, accumulation doesn’t appear to be much of a concern until you get a good bit south of D.C., but there’s still time for some forecast fluctuations. After high pressure builds in tomorrow night and puts an end to precipitation chances, temperatures are on the up and up with highs in the 60s by midweek!

Snow Potential Index: 2 (→) - Best chance for dusting or more from potential Monday flakes is south of area, but could still shift north.
 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Today (Sunday): The cloud forecast is not a terribly confident one, with a wave of low pressure off the coast and a little upper-level system approaching from the west later in the day. The morning is likely mostly cloudy from around D.C. to the south and east, with sun increasing as you head north and west of town. A more uniform partly to mostly cloudy forecast should suffice area-wide for the afternoon. That coastal low could clip mainly southern and eastern parts of the area with a few showers as we go through the day, especially Southern Maryland. Cooler air filtering in should hold highs to the upper 40s to near 50. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: After a cool and partly to mostly cloudy evening, a weak Clipper system tracking mainly to our south could generate flurries overnight, or even a few snow showers south of D.C. No accumulation is expected, except maybe a dusting toward morning from around Fredericksburg, Va., and to the south. Lows are on the cool side, around the upper 20s to low 30s. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through midweek...

Tomorrow (Monday): Flurries or rain/snow showers remain possible through mid-afternoon, or thereabout, as highs aim for the low-to-mid 40s under mostly cloudy skies. As of now, accumulation isn’t likely except possibly from around Fredericksburg, Va., and to the south where snow may be steady enough for a coating or so. But, if the system’s track shifts north a bit, than the D.C. area could be in dusting territory with even colder high temperatures. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: High pressure building in means clearing skies and a cold overnight, with lows in the mid-20s to near 30. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

High pressure settles in overhead on Tuesday and that means lots of sun to enjoy. Temperatures don’t respond as quickly as some might prefer, however, with highs again in the upper 40s to near 50. Clear and cool Tuesday night, as lows dip to the upper 20s to mid-30s below starry skies. Confidence: Medium-High

Wednesday the good times roll once again. With high pressure centered off the coast, mild air surges in from the south and southwest. That combined with sun-filled skies shoots our temperatures up about 15 degrees to highs in the low 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

Dan Stillman contributed to this forecast.

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 03/04/2012

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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