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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 09/03/2011

Forecast: A few storms, but overall decent start to holiday weekend

What’s up with Katia and Lee? Hurricane Tracking Center

11:35 a.m. Update:Showers and thunderstorms should continue to dissipate heading into the afternoon, but they may hang on through at least 1 p.m. or so, particularly west of I95. We can’t completely rule out an additional shower/t’storm or two during the afternoon either, but coverage should be minimal. Depending on how quick we clear out, many spots may have trouble reaching originally forecasted highs today.

9:55 a.m. Update: As we tweeted might be the case in our live update feed above, some storms coming from the north have worked their way into the northern and western suburbs. The strongest portion of the storms has prompted a Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 10:30 a.m. for western Montgomery, southeast Loudoun and northwest Fairfax counties, where quarter-sized hail is possible. Storms continue to be a risk for the northern and western suburbs over the next hour or so, then should tend to dissipate.

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Not too many complaints, but high humidity is back and it's a bit warmer than I'd like in September.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Variably cloudy. Shower late?. Mid-to-upper 80s. | Tonight: Partly cloudy. Upper 60s to lower 70s. | Tomorrow: Partly cloudy. Afternoon storm? Upper 80s to near 90.| A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Welcome to the unofficial final weekend of summer! If you’re a meteorologist, fall already began on Thursday, but of course if you’re “normal” there are still a few weeks of summer left. Any way you slice it, we won’t see too much summer heat in the near future (we’re running out of time…), but there will be plenty of humidity along with rain chances to dodge over the coming days. We may even see a deluge into next week, but the verdict remains out on the details of that.


Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Saturday): Partly sunny skies rule the day, though don’t be surprised if that means cloudier periods as well – those sky conditions are an “average” of course! Temperatures should not have much trouble rising into the mid-80s, and some upper 80s could show themselves too. I can’t rule out an afternoon shower, but I don’t really expect much. Light south winds help keep the humidity coming. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: We’ll have to watch for an evening sprinkle or shower, but they should be isolated at best. Humidity is back into the soupy range, so lows can’t dip too far. Under partly cloudy skies, expect mainly upper 60s and lower 70s for overnight low temperatures. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the beginning of next week...

Tomorrow (Sunday): We may see more clouds than sun, or at the least more bubbling clouds into the afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are possible (30% chance) during the late day, and some could produce heavy rain, though I’m not that confident this activity works much east of the higher terrain. Before any rain, highs reach the upper 80s to near 90. September averages a few days above 90, so we should probably expect at least one here or there. Light south winds persist. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: The odds of rain stay around 30-40% as a cold front approaches. It should not rain all night, but it could rain at any point even though we don’t have daytime warmth to get things going. Lows again are moderated by high humidity, so plan on upper 60s to near 70 or so. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

On Labor Day Monday, the cold front is still deciding whether to pass through or hang to the north as it gets influenced by Tropical Storm Lee. We may even have more widespread showers and storms by later in the day (50% chance), but it’s somewhat uncertain whether or not most of the rain stays to our north and west much of the day. Either way, we should have plenty of clouds and highs struggling to get much past the low-or-mid 80s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tuesday is looking at least off and on rainy for now, but as with Monday it’s fairly uncertain where the heaviest sets up. As moisture ahead of the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee work their way up the frontal boundary somewhere in the area, it looks to spit out a good deal of moisture in the broader mid-Atlantic region. For now, rain appears likely (60-70% chance), with highs near 80. Confidence: Low

Up to several inches of rain could fall before all is said and done, sometime later in the week like Thursday or Friday. Temperatures probably stay moderated through much of the week thanks to this risk. Stay tuned! Confidence: Low

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 09/03/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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