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Posted at 09:15 PM ET, 06/19/2011

Forecast: Dodging some Dad’s Day showers; midweek stretch of 90s

9:15 p.m. Update: Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop mainly after midnight and may continue through mid-morning. Be ready for the possibility of a sloppy and slow morning commute. Rainfall may be heavy at times especially towards the mountains, where Flash Flood Watches have been issued through 6 a.m. Right around here, 0.5-1” of rain is possible with some isolated areas receiving 2” or more.

7:10 a.m. Update: Showers have setup mainly west and south of the metro area. Models suggest that may be where the best energy remains the next several hours, which would put morning shower chances in the metro area closer to 40% than the 60% mentioned below.

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Not a total washout but looking cloudier, more showery than first thought, especially morning into early afternoon. Cooler, too.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly to partly cloudy. 60% chance of a.m. showers. 30% chance of scattered p.m. storms. Near 80 to mid-80s. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy, isolated evening showers. 60-67. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny. Chance of isolated to scattered late-day storms. Mid-to-upper 80s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Our Father’s Day forecast loses a bit of its luster as it looks cloudier with a better chance of showers than originally advertised, especially during the morning into midday. Hopefully the weather clears some as we get into the stretch run this afternoon at Congressional, but even then radar will need to be watched with a chance of hit-or-miss storms. Our extended forecast calls for a return to the hot and humid 90s Tuesday and Wednesday.

Today (Sunday): Don’t take it personally, dads, but this Father’s Day looks less sunny and possibly more showery than previously thought as a weak area of low pressure moves by. Now, the models may be overdoing the clouds and rain potential a bit. But the morning and maybe into early afternoon does feature a 60% chance of showers with isolated thunder possible, while the mid-or-late afternoon presents the best chance of some sun, but still a 30% chance of scattered storms. Highs should be held in check by the clouds, maxing out from near 80 to the mid-80s with at least moderate humidity. Confidence: Low-Medium

Thundercast:

Probability: 30-40%
Coverage: Scattered
Most Likely Timing: 3-8 p.m..

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Tonight: Shower/storm chances gradually diminish during the evening as the weak low pressure moves away. But odds are we stay mostly cloudy through most of the night. Winds are light or even nearly calm as we enjoy a brief dip in humidity and lows in the low-to-mid 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through midweek...

Tomorrow (Monday): Sort of an in-between day tomorrow. Skies should turn at least partly sunny for much of the day before clouding up again later in the afternoon as highs reach the mid-to-upper 80s. Humidity increases through the day thanks to breezes from the south or southeast, and isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible come late afternoon and evening. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: The chance for showers and storms continues, and it looks like the best chance may come with a line of showers/storms that threatens to move through in the pre-dawn hours. With partly to mostly cloudy skies and winds from the south, lows should stay up there - in the mid-60s to near 70. Confidence: Low-Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

We see high pressure start to build in on Tuesday after any early-morning shower activity clears out. That should spell more sun and increasing heat with highs likely in the low-to-mid 90s and at least moderate humidity. Despite the higher pressure, a warm front is close enough to keep a 30% chance of afternoon/evening storms in the forecast. Tuesday night lows are mild and muggy, in the low-to-mid 70s. Confidence: Medium

The heat and humidity are in full force Wednesday with highs in the mid-90s a good bet. Afternoon showers and storms are still a risk (30- 40% chance), though the focus may be more north of town, closer to the warm front. Confidence: Medium

By  |  09:15 PM ET, 06/19/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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