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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 12/17/2011

Forecast: Feelin’ wintry with a breeze today and a few flakes possible tonight

6:15 p.m. update: Light flurries and snow showers are occurring in D.C.’s north and west suburbs, with even a few flakes into the District. This activity should continue on and off through the evening - with a few flakes even possible towards the south and east suburbs - with little or no accumulation expected. The exception may be higher elevations in western Loudoun county and into Frederick county where a light accumulation of less than 1” could occur.

9:30 a.m. update: A fairly solid low-and-mid level cloud deck is parked out over the area. While extended sunshine always appeared somewhat tough to come by today, this area of clouds was somewhat unexpected and helps put a wrench in the idea of much in the way of sun. There is a chance it dissipates but additional clouds from the next system (as noted in the forecast) are also streaming east toward the area for later. The extra clouds should help keep us near the lower end of the temperature range for today as well.

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Hoping for some solid sun before more clouds. How great is it not to have above average temps? Refreshing!
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Variably sunny, breezy. 42-47 | Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Snow flakes? Upper 20s to near freezing. | Sunday: Increasing sunshine. Near 40 to mid-40s. | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Over half way through the month, we’re running higher than 3 degrees above normal to date. “Chilly” ones like today and tomorrow should come in close enough to average not to have any major impact on the overall departure thus far. We’ve had it pretty easy for sure, and that makes the return of December-like temperatures in the 40s quite palatable, even for someone who likes warmth. Tonight we might even see a snowflake or two!

Snow Potential Index: 2 (↑) - Some flakes in the air Saturday night? Remote chance late next week, but don't start dreaming of a white Xmas.
 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Today (Saturday): We spend some time in between systems -- the one departing from last night and the one to arrive for tonight. Hopefully that means at least a handful of hours featuring pretty uninterrupted sunshine. One way or another, clouds should be on the increase late as the next weak system approaches from the northwest. Highs shoot for the mid-40s many spots, though a breeze around 10-15 mph from the northwest makes it feel a bit chillier. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: The next system is all upper-level energy. That means there’s not much moisture to work with, but there’s a shot at folks seeing a few snowflakes as early as the evening and through the night. These events sometimes pump out a heavier squall or two, so someone might get that, though the odds seem better in elevation to our northwest or up near the Maryland/Pennsylvania border. Temperature falls are stunted slightly by cloud cover, but we still reach the upper 20s to near freezing. It's not impossible someone gets a dusting of snow if there is any heavier burst, just don’t plan on it. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through Tuesday of next week...

Tomorrow (Sunday): It’s another cool one, but once again not far off what we should be expecting. Any remnant clouds in the morning should break during the day, leaving us mostly sunny for a good while. High temperatures are pretty similar to today, ranging from the high lower 40s to the low upper 40s (AKA a lot of mid-40s). Breezes rise to around 10 mph during peak sunshine. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: We see mostly clear skies, and light wind. With a chilled air mass that means temperatures dip nicely. Plan on lows in the mid-20s in the suburbs to around 30 downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

The week starts off rather tame on Monday. Mostly sunny skies and temperatures up near 50 may be the perfect combo to send you on a walk to get some lunch midday. Overnight lows are pretty benign as well, ranging from near freezing in areas removed from the city to the mid-or-upper 30s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

On Tuesday we begin to notice the next storm system spinning off to our west. The main tip off is increased clouds. It’s at least partly cloudy, but potentially mostly cloudy. There could be a shower late day as a warm front lifts through as well, but it looks like rain stays west for now. Highs are quite similar to Monday, or right around 50 most spots. Confidence: Medium

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 12/17/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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