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Posted at 07:45 AM ET, 04/28/2011

Forecast: Intense AM storms, PM cool down

Tornado watch through 3 p.m.

(originally posted at 5 a.m.)

Latest updates after 7:45 p.m. are in new post.

7:45 a.m. update: For the moment, there are no tornado warnings in effect across the metro region. But there are very strong storms developing southwest of Culpeper which will move northeast into the western parts of the region in the next hour. Severe weather prospects increase inside the beltway and points east from mid-morning into early afternoon.

7:40 a.m. update: The tornado watch has been extended until 3 p.m. for the entire metro region.

7:30 a.m. update: Flash flood warning for northern Loudoun, northwest Montgomery, and eastern Frederick counties until 10:30 a.m. From NWS:

HEAVY RAIN IS PRODUCING RAPIDLY RISING WATER ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THERE ARE SEVERAL REPORTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT ...AND UP TO AN INCH MORE IS EXPECTED.

(skip to end of this post to see earlier severe weather updates since 5 a.m.)

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Temps not the problem but possible severe AM weather & gusty winds take this day down some notches.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

Today: Morning thunderstorms, then breezy, cooler. 74-77. | Tonight: Mostly clear. 46-52 | Tomorrow: Sunny a.m., partly cloudy p.m. 66-70. | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

A powerful cold front starts the day with the possibility of severe morning storms. On the plus side, the front gives us back spring for the weekend! Yes, we finally lose the humidity, and get some nice days to enjoy all the May flowers that our earlier April showers have helped along. Yes indeed, May Day arrives on Sunday and it will be a fine one to dance around your May pole. Next storm potential is not expected until Monday night.

Today (Thursday): Strong to severe storms are likely during the morning. The main concern will be high wind gusts but isolated tornadoes and hail are also possible. Speaking of the wind, a steady gale of 10-20 mph from the southwest is a day long occurrence. Highs are likely just before the storms reaching the mid-70s and then slowly slipping lower behind the front. Clouds could begin to break by evening. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Skies quickly clear in the evening but the truly chilly air should wait until after midnight to settle in, which is good news for you Nats fans. The winds die down fairly quickly which helps hold off the chill. However, early morning risers will be greeted with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Friday): You will not be blamed for thinking it is a chilly day after all of our summer weather. The reality is temperatures are going to be close to normal with highs reaching the upper 60s to near 70. The problem is winds from the west at 10-20 mph and a sunny morning that is likely to cloud up in the afternoon due to the very cold air a few thousand feet overhead. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Calm winds and clear skies spell quickly dropping temperatures this evening. A jacket would be a handy thing to have with you if you are out and about with readings quickly falling to the 50s and overnight lows in the 40s. It is a great early morning to catch the crescent moon and Venus together in the eastern sky before dawn at about 5:45 am. Okay I know, who am I kidding ? But you could get up and see them! Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Saturday is an outdoor day. Dry air, blue skies, light winds and highs in the low-to-mid 70s. I don’t know what else to say but get out and enjoy. The evening readings remain mild in the 60s. Lows should only fall to the upper 40s to lower 50s. Confidence: Medium-High

Sunday is even better with continued mostly sunny skies and light southerly breezes. Highs peak out in the mid-to-upper 70s. Humidity is on the increase but quite manageable. The evening is a welcome introduction to May with readings well up in the 60s. Overnight lows slip to the mid-to-upper 50s. Confidence: Medium

Monday starts out mild but clouds are likely to begin building in early in the day as a cold front approaches. However, the timing right now looks like thundershowers arrive in the evening and spare the commuters. Severe potential will exist if it comes through at that time, so keep up on the latest. Highs should again reach the mid-to-upper 70s Confidence:Low-Medium

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Early morning storm updates (expired)

7:25 a.m. update: Tornado warning extended until 7:45 a.m. in northeast Frederick and south and central Carroll county. Possible tornado 5 miles east of Mt. Airy moving northeast at 40 mph. Tornado warning issued earlier for Montgomery and Howard county discontinued.

7:20 a.m. update: National Weather Service reports multiple trees down in Beallsville in Montgomery County from around 6:50 a.m.

7:10 a.m. update: TORNADO WARNING for northwest Montgomery county, eastern Frederick county, western Howard county, and southern Carroll county until 7:30 a.m. Severe thunderstorm capable of producing tornado located near Damascus at 7:02 a.m. moving NE at 40 mph. In path: Mt. Airy, Gamber, and Westminster. Previous tornado warning to southwest will expire at 7:15 a.m.

7:00 a.m. update: A funnel cloud was reported in Point of Rocks, Maryland at 6:55 a.m.

6:55 a.m. update: Tornado warning continues for western Montgomery and eastern Frederick county until 7:15 a.m. At 6:50 a.m. radar indicated tornadoes extended from Poolesville to 5 miles southeast of Point of Rocks, moving northeast at 35 mph. Tornado warning canceled for Loudoun county.

6:40 a.m. update: TORNADO WARNING for Loudoun, eastern Frederick and western Montgomery county until 7:15 a.m. Doppler radar indicated possible tornado near Landsdowne at 6:35 AM moving NE at 35 mph. In potential path: Leesburg, Poolesville, Boyds, New Market, Green Valley and Damascus. Also: Boyds, Germantown, Ijamsville, Clarksburg, Friendship. TAKE COVER

6:35 a.m. update: Tornado warning in Fauquier county issued earlier has expired.

6:15 a.m. update: A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms, some of which are rotating, continues training from southwest to northeast through northern Fauquier and central Loudoun counties. For the time being, locations from Fairfax county and to the east remain storm free. Storms should gradually shift east later this morning.

6:00 a.m. update: TORNADO warning in Fauquier county remains in effect until 6:30 AM. At 5:56 AM possible tornado was located 6 miles northwest of Warrenton, moving northeast at 50 mph. A funnel cloud was reportedly sighted in the county. Tornado warning for Frederick county canceled.

5:50 a.m. update: TORNADO WARNING for section of northern Fauquier county and extreme northwest Prince William county through 6:30 a.m. Locations in potential path include... THE PLAINS ... MEADOWVILLE ...AIRLIE... MARSHALL... ANISSVILLE.

5:45 a.m. update: TORNADO warning for Frederick county countinues until 6:30 a.m., canceled in Loudoun. Severe t’storm capable of tornado 9 miles S of Ballenger Creek, moving NE at 40 mph. Locations potentially impacted: BALLENGER CREEK ...FREDERICK ...NEW MARKET ... GREEN VALLEY... WALKERSVILLE. Take cover!

5:40 a.m. update: TORNADO WARNING for northern Loudoun and eastern Frederick county through 6:15 a.m. At 5:30 a severe t’storm capable of producing a tornado was 6 miles south of Point of Rocks or 6 miles north of Leesburg moving NE at 65 mph. Locations potentially impacted: LUCKETTS... BALLENGER CREEK... FREDERICK... NEW MARKET... GREEN VALLEY... WALKERSVILLE...

5:35 a.m. update: Showers and storms continue to pass through western suburbs. Fortunately, for the moment, none of the activity is severe. Look for the storms to gradually shift east toward the immediate metro region between 6 and 7 a.m.

5:10 a.m. update: Tornado warning for Frederick county has been canceled.

5:00 a.m. update: A TORNADO WARNING is in effect in for northwest Frederick county through 5:15 a.m. as a line of severe storms advances toward the metro region from southwest to northeast. To the south, storms are fast approaching the D.C. metro region and are moving into Fauquier and Loudoun counties. Initial cluster of storms to move through western suburbs over next hour and elsewhere over next two hours.

By and  |  07:45 AM ET, 04/28/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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