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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 05/14/2012

Forecast: Lots of rain through Wednesday, then drying out and warm


Today: On and off showers. 70-75. | Tonight: Showers and thundershowers, possibly heavy. 60-65. | Tomorrow: Intermittent showers and storms. 74-78. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10

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We need rain and it’s coming at an opportune time. It waited until after we completed a beautiful Mother’s Day weekend and just as drought concerns are growing. Between today and Tuesday night, around 1-4 inches of rain is possible. The clouds and rain hold temperatures down in the 70s but it’s plenty humid. The drying trend starts Wednesday, with highs then close to 80 through the weekend.

Today (Monday): Periods of showers are likely (70 percent chance, maybe a rumble of thunder, especially in the afternoon), but also dry stretches. Showers seem like a good bet in the morning with a possible midday break. Then another batch may develop as the afternoon wears on. Mostly cloudy skies hold high temperatures to 70-75, but it’s a bit humid with winds from the south at 10 mph.

Highest day time rain amounts are probably west of Fairfax and Montgomery counties where 0.5-1” is possible. Elsewhere, amounts are variable, mainly in the 0.25-0.5” range. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Showers and thundershowers are very likely (90 percent chance), and may be heavy at times. The southerly flow and clouds mean mild overnight temperatures, with lows only 60-65. Rainfall amounts are again highly variable but should average somewhere between 0.5-1.5” (highest amounts favored west of I-95). I can’t totally rule out some isolated flooding where heavy rain bands set up. We’ll keep you posted. Confidence: Medium

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Showers and thundershowers are likely (60-70 percent chance) again. Best chances are in the afternoon/evening timeframe. Activity may be more scattered than Monday and Monday night with some partly sunny breaks possible. Highs reach the mid-to-upper 70s. Rainfall amounts are variable but may average around 0.5”. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Showers and thundershowers may linger into the evening, but should diminish after around 10 p.m. Skies become partly cloudy, with lows 55-60 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium


Wednesday features more sunshine than Monday and Tuesday, but a cold front passing through may spark one more round of showers and storms in the afternoon (30% chance). The increase in sunshine pushes highs to around 80. Partly cloudy Wednesday night with lows 52-60 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium

High pressure builds into the region Thursday and Friday and, even while shifting northeast, probably hangs tough enough to influence our weather through the weekend. That means generally dry conditions with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs within 3-5 degrees of 80 each day. Overnight lows range from the 50s to near 60. Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast towards the weekend should be far enough away not to be an issue, but we’ll watch it for you. Confidence: Medium

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 05/14/2012

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