Forecast: More 50s on the way. Could snow sneak into holiday weekend?

Today’s Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
50s with more sun than clouds! Would prefer on weekend than midweek, but I won’t take that out on the digit.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly to mostly sunny. Low-to-mid 50s. | Tonight: Increasing clouds. Upper 30s to low 40s. | Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy. 60% chance of showers. Upper 40s to near 50. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

We’ve got a chance to reach or surpass 50 degrees each of the next four days (though tomorrow may fall just short). Can’t always say that in mid-February, but it’s par for the course as this winter goes. As you might guess, highs near or past 50 aren’t so conducive to snow, which is why anything that falls with a system coming through tomorrow will be in the form of rain. The holiday weekend, however, could be a different story. Emphasis on the could though.

””Snow Potential Index: 4 (↑) - Models hang on to possible weekend snow threat. Rain or the storm missing us are also in play.
 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the ‘SPI’ on Twitter
 

Today (Wednesday): High pressure rules the day and that means partly to mostly sunny skies with pleasant highs in the low-to-mid 50s. Winds are a bit breezy, blowing 10-15 mph from the northwest, as that sunset time creeps later to 5:46 p.m. Confidence: High

Tonight: Skies turn increasingly cloudy as our next storm system approaches from the Midwest. The clouds trap a good bit of our daytime warmth, so lows probably only dip to the upper 30s to low 40s. Maybe a shower gets in here toward morning. Confidence: Medium-High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Thursday): Low pressure and an associated cold front bring a 60% chance of showers to the area. We’ll stay on the warm side of the front through the daylight hours, which combined with an increasing breeze from the south/southeast should push highs to the upper 40s to near 50, despite mostly cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Shower chances gradually decrease during the evening followed by clearing skies overnight. Lows remain quite a bit above average, in the upper 30s to low 40s. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

We’re back to sunshine on Friday as higher pressure builds in again. Highs in the 50s are an excellent way to finish out the week and head into the holiday weekend. Friday night shapes up as mostly clear and cool with lows from near 30 to the mid-30s. Confidence: Medium-High

The holiday weekend starts out harmless enough with partly sunny skies on Saturday and highs near 50 or in the 50s. Confidence: Medium-High

Here’s where things get interesting. Some models have shown the makings of a possible coastal storm that could bring snow or rain to the mid-Atlantic during the late Saturday-Sunday time frame. But other models haven’t, and even the ones that have haven’t been consistent from run to to run. So at this point a big snowstorm is about as likely as no storm or something in between. In other words: Stay tuned. Confidence:Low

Whatever happens Saturday night-Sunday, it seems likely that high pressure returns for Presidents’ Day with increasing sun and highs in the 40s. Confidence: Medium-High

Dan Stillman is a meteorologist and editor for the Capital Weather Gang. He earned an M.S. in Meteorology from Texas A&M University, and a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences from the University of Michigan.

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