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Posted at 04:30 PM ET, 07/04/2011

Forecast: No independence from heat, storm risk

updated at 4:30 p.m. and 1:15 p.m., originally posted at 5:45 a.m.

Severe thunderstorm watch for Stafford co. (in Va.) to Charles co. in Md. and points south until 10 p.m.
Violent storm sweeps through area, kills one | Storm video

Storm damage pics from Arlington (from @bslilly via Twitter)
Code orange air quality: unhealthy for sensitive groups

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Poor air quality, kinda hot, and still the outside risk of storms. We could do better.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny, chance of storms late. Near 90. | Tonight: Early storm possible, then partly cloudy. 60s to near 70. | Tomorrow: Partly cloudy. 86-91. | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The frontal system which produced all of the thundery mayhem Sunday sinks south today. But it doesn’t scoot far enough away to break the heat or kill the storm threat. In fact, for much of the upcoming week, fronts flirt with us - never really clearing the air. That means regular storm chances and no real relief from 90 degree heat.


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday, July 4): Let’s start off with the good: it won’t be as humid as Sunday. However, it’s just about as hot and a wave moving along the front just to our south makes a close enough approach to produce a storm or two late in the day and into the evening. The best chance of storms is south of D.C. towards Fredericksburg, but we still have about a 20-30% chance. Highs should reach around 90, with a breeze from the northwest at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: A thunderstorm can’t be ruled out in the evening, maybe even coinciding with fireworks. However, the storm threat is more likely earlier and to the south. Outside of any storms, skies are partly cloudy, with lows from the low 60s in the cooler suburbs to near 70 dowtown. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...


Thunderstorm approaches Dupont Circle yesterday evening. (Ian Livingson - CWG photographer)
Tomorrow (Tuesday): High pressure to the north should have strong enough control over the region to deliver a dry day. However, an isolated storm - especially south of D.C. - can’t entirely be ruled out (20% chance). Highs are slightly cooler than the previous few days, with highs mostly in the upper 80s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Mostly clear and more-or-less pleasant. Lows range from near 60 in the cooler suburbs to the upper 60s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Wednesday through Friday are all pretty much the same. Each day brings partly sunny and about a 20-30% chance of afternoon storms due to the proximity of a stalled out front. Highs each day should be near 90, with overnight lows in the 60s to near 70. Confidence: Medium

We probably can’t entirely rid ourselves of the front over the weekend, but some of the guidance does push it far enough south to dry things out a little and drop temps a few degrees. So right now, I’ll go with highs in the upper 80s and just a 20% of an isolated late day storm each day. Confidence: Low-Medium

By  |  04:30 PM ET, 07/04/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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