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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 01/17/2012

Forecast: Quick burst of 50s with morning showers today, but colder weather returns mid-to-late week

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Very warm day for mid-January, but morning showers offer some disruption.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Showers (mainly a.m.), clouds. 53-58. | Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy. 35-39. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, colder. 38-43.| Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

After the cold holiday weekend, today’s spike into the 50s runs a solid 10-15 degrees warmer than normal. The day is partially compromised by mainly morning shower opportunities (i.e not a complete washout). A cold front tonight pushes temperatures back down into the seasonal or colder range for midweek with chilly conditions lingering until Sunday. Some flurries are possible Thursday night or Friday morning, and we are still monitoring the chance for a mixed precipitation event on Saturday.

Snow Potential Index: 2 (↑) - Possible Thursday PM flurries & enough cold air may linger on Saturday morning for a period of snow before a mix and/or rain.
 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Today (Tuesday): Scattered showers today mainly morning to midday (60% likelihood). Partly to mostly cloudy skies as winds mainly from the southwest at 10-15 mph bring in much warmer conditions. Highs in the mid-50s (even some upper 50s or better if we get enough sun, especially south of town) would be the warmest day since Thursday and Friday of last week. And the sun could break through at times, especially in the afternoon. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue with a 30% chance of a shower toward/around midnight as a cold front pushes through. Temperatures stay very mild into the evening hours toward midnight (upper 40s to even near 50 yet), but then drop down through the 40s to the upper 30s toward dawn with winds about 10-15 mph from the northwest. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): A colder and much drier air mass moves into the region, offering sunny skies, steady temperatures in the upper 30s to maybe low 40s. However, the combination of low dew points and winds in the 10-20 mph range pushes the wind chill down through the 30s and even into the 20s at times. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Mainly clear skies and calming winds allow temperatures to drop more toward the upper teens in the outer suburbs to the middle 20s in the city. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday should start on the mostly sunny side with still mostly cold conditions. Clouds build in the afternoon and high temperatures should range through the low 40s. A cold front passes through Thursday night with a chance for a few flurries. Lows range mainly through the 20s. Confidence: Medium

Friday finds mostly sunny skies again with near-seasonal temperatures that range from the upper 30s to low 40s. Clouds increase Friday night with lows in the 20s to low 30s. Some light precipitation is possible toward dawn, which could be of the frozen variety. Confidence: Low-Medium

The weekend starts messy but ends better. Mixed precipitation is possible on Saturday morning with a better chance of plain rain by midday and afternoon. The guidance is not yet decided on the ultimate track of low pressure through the area. If it passes overhead or north, the odds of frozen precipitation are much lower, while a more southern track would feature some chances for snow, sleet, and maybe even freezing rain before a later day changeover to rain. Otherwise, cloudy skies are expected to persist into Saturday night with lows in the 30s to low 40s. Warmer weather with partly to mostly sunny skies bring temperatures back to the low 50s for Sunday. Confidence: Low-Medium

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 01/17/2012

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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