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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 05/23/2012

Forecast: Shower chances persist as we build toward holiday weekend heat


Today: Partly to mostly cloudy. 70% chance of shower/storms. Mid-70s to near 80. | Tonight: Decreasing shower/storm chances. 60s. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny. 40-50% chance of p.m. showers/storms. Near 80 to low 80s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10

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We have two days (today and Thursday) before low pressure gives way to high pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere. That change doesn’t necessarily mean an end to shower and thunderstorm chances Friday through Memorial Day. But it should mean more sun and building heat with highs likely near or past 90 degrees. That’s sweaty stuff for the end of May, especially with moderate humidity expected to stick around.

Today (Wednesday): We’re under the influence of low pressure both near the surface and higher up in the atmosphere. That means patchy early-morning fog, partly to mostly cloudy skies, and a good chance (70%) of showers and possibly thunderstorms, especially late morning through afternoon. Highs should at least reach the mid-70s with noticeable humidity, and could get to near 80 if showers hold off long enough. Confidence: Medium-High

What is the Storm Threat Level?

Tonight: Shower and storm chances decrease this evening and we’re left with a partly to mostly cloudy overnight, maybe some patchy fog too, and lows in the 60s. Confidence: Medium

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Thursday): A moist, warm flow from the south/southeast keeps the same general theme going with a 40-50% chance of mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Might see a bit more sun than today, so let’s call it partly sunny with highs again near 80 or in the low 80s and still moderately humid. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Shower/storm chances diminish but still linger into the evening before pretty much dwindling altogether for the overnight. Otherwise, it’s a rinse-and-repeat kind of forecast (i.e., pretty much the same as tonight) with partly to mostly cloudy skies and lows in the 60s. Confidence: Medium


Friday through Memorial Day feature what, as of now, looks to be a markedly different pattern with high pressure replacing low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere. That probably translates to partly to mostly sunny skies, hot highs likely in the upper 80s to low 90s, and lows in the mid-60s to low 70s. Humidity remains in the moderate range, potentially pushing afternoon heat indices into the low-to-mid 90s. We may also still have at least a small chance of showers and thunderstorms. Confidence: Medium

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 05/23/2012

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