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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 02/16/2012

Forecast: Showery Thursday; still questions on weekend storm

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Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Cloudy with showers, but today's system is not a big drencher and temperatures are still relatively mild.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Cloudy, mainly p.m. showers. 47-52. | Tonight: Clearing. 33-40. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, breezy. 50-55. | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

After a beautiful mild and sunny day yesterday with another one promised for tomorrow, we must take a temporary intermission today as a weather disturbance treks across our region. This system is weak, so outside of clouds and afternoon showers (mostly light, but widespread), we still aim to register above normal temperatures for mid-February. Mostly sunny skies and 50s bounce back tomorrow, and Saturday looks decent too with partly sunny skies and more 50s. Saturday night into Sunday is the big wild card with a few different possible options (see below). President’s Day Monday should be colder, but dry at least.

Snow Potential Index: 4 (→) - Even though we are a day closer to this event, I don't feel like we're a day smarter on it. We may struggle to get the necessary cold air supply.
 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Thursday): Clouds dominate our day with a few chances of light showers in the morning and likely showers this afternoon, which may be moderate for a time, especially late. Highs range in the mild-for-February upper 40s to low 50s. Light winds at 5-10 mph come from the south. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Early evening showers are likely, but then Clouds ease out overnight with gradual clearing skies. Lows drop into the 30s, but depending on the cloud departure timing, we could see the city hold closer to around 40 degrees. Winds from the northwest at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Friday!): What a nice way to end a long week as many of us aim for a three-day weekend. Mostly sunny skies with highs in the low-to-mid 50s. Our air (and skin) will be drying out with dropping dew points. Also, winds from the northwest could be breezy at times, but mostly in the 10-15 mph range. This is still warm for mid-February. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: A few clouds are possible, but mostly clear skies along with calming winds should allow at least the suburbs to cool to freezing or colder levels. Lows should range from the upper 20s to the low 30s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Saturday should feature partly sunny skies perhaps getting a bit more cloudier by mid-late afternoon. The relatively mild air mass helps us get into the low-to-mid 50s yet again. It’s probably the best day of the three-day weekend. Clouds roll in Saturday night, and that’s when the questions begin. Does a storm from the south get close enough to bring precipitation? And do we tap into some cold air from the north? Let’s stick with a chance of rain or snow Saturday night with lows in the 30s. Confidence: Medium Saturday and low for Saturday night

Sunday is a day of meteorological mystery. I have been impressed by the broad range of weather model options over the last few days ranging anywhere from a cool but dry day to heavy rain and/or snow. The balance of the overnight models suggest a stormier scenario with enough cold air for at least some wet snow, but mostly rain or dry scenarios remain on the table. Unless it ends up dry Sunday, we probably struggle to reach 40. Sunday night could see lingering precipitation with mostly cloudy skies and lows in the upper 20s to 30s. Confidence: Low

President’s Day Monday should be partly to maybe mostly sunny with highs in the mid-to-upper 40s. If the Sunday storm gets stronger and afflicts the Northeast, then we could have a windier day with colder wind chills and more clouds lingering. Confidence: Low-Medium

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 02/16/2012

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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