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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 02/19/2012

Forecast: Snow may be mostly a no-show

11:20 a.m. Update: This morning’s models confirm our forecast below remains on track. Some light snow, or rain changing to snow, is possible mid-afternoon through evening (50% chance), but little to no accumulation is expected. The best chance of a little accumulation in the metro area, and it’s just a chance, is south of the District (likely around a half-inch or less).

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Cool and gray, with probably not even much (if any) snow to show for it? Won't win many over with that forecast.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly cloudy. 50% chance of p.m. light rain/snow. Low-to-mid 40s. | Tonight: 50% chance of evening light snow. Upper 20s to mid-30s. | Tomorrow: Becoming mostly sunny. Mid-40s to near 50. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

As we’ve indicated was quite possible for several days now, little to no snow looks to be the most likely result as a storm tracks mainly to our south this afternoon and evening. Snow lovers are surely crushed, though we still can’t rule out a light accumulation especially south of D.C. The clouds and northeasterly breezes associated with the storm do help to keep us on the cool side today. But then it’s right back to business as usual this winter, with early-to-mid week highs climbing near and past 50.

Snow Potential Index: 4 (↓) - Better chance south of town. But even there accumulation iffy. It's been that kind of winter.
 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 


CWG’s snowfall forecast for Sunday/Sunday night. Issued 11:00 p.m. 2/17 and still valid
Today (Sunday): Morning temperatures start out rather mild for mid-February, in the mid-30s to near 40. But with mostly cloudy skies and a cool 10-15 mph breeze from the northeast, daytime highs probably won’t get much past the low-to-mid 40s . That’s still warm enough that any precipitation arriving mid-to-late afternoon could start as a mix of snow and rain or even all rain. We’ll be on the northern fringe of this storm, so some areas could end up with little or no precipitation, especially north of D.C.

The best odds of seeing a steady period of all snow is south of D.C. between late afternoon and mid-evening (50% chance). Even that may not be heavy enough to accumulate much on our warm ground. See map above for accumulation potential across the area. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: After that 50% chance of a steady period of all snow mainly south of D.C. through mid-evening, any precipitation should be departing by or during the late evening. Overnight temperatures drop down to the upper 20s to mid- 30s (suburbs to city). Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through midweek...

Tomorrow (Presidents’ Day): Skies quickly turn mostly sunny as high pressure builds in and highs edge back up to the mid-40s to near 50. Morning breezes around 10-15 mph from the northwest add a slight chill, but should diminish in the afternoon. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Monday night looks like the coldest we’re going to be for a while. We’re clear and calm overnight, with lows dipping to the upper 20s to low 30s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

High pressures slides east off the coast Tuesday, but not before leaving us with another nice day. Skies should stay at least partly sunny early, with increasing clouds later in the day. As seems to be the norm this year, highs reach for the low 50s. Tuesday night, skies turn mostly cloudy as a weak cold front passes through. A light sprinkle or shower is about the most the front can muster with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Confidence: Medium-High

Wednesday looks like many other days this winter, with partly sunny skies, a mild breeze from the southwest and highs in the mid-50s to near 60. Just a small chance of a shower, at least at this point. Confidence: Medium

Dan Stillman contributed to this forecast.

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 02/19/2012

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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