Forecast: Some showers and thundershowers today before heavier rain arrives Sunday

EXPRESS FORECAST

4:45 p.m. Update: Showers and storms closing in from the west and south contain heavy downpours, winds gusting to 40-50 mph, some lightning and possibly small hail. Many parts of the metro area are likely to see showers or storms at some point between approximately 6 p.m. and 11 p.m. as they generally move through from west to east or southwest to northeast.

From 5 a.m...

Today: Increasing clouds, p.m. showers and t’showers. 76-81. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy, showers likely. Near 50 to mid-50s. | Tomorrow: Showers likely, periods of moderate to heavy rain. 50s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail


FORECAST IN DETAIL


Today (Saturday): We see some sunshine around, particularly early, but clouds are on the increase and an isolated shower early becomes a 60-70% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening. Before the main area of storminess arrives, highs should rise to the mid-70s or even past 80 in spots. Places that get into heavier showers could pick up a quick 0.5”or so, though many spots should shoot for about 0.1”-0.25”. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: If showers or storms last into the evening, they should end by about 6- 8 p.m. We then see perhaps a several hour period of no rain, or light scattered showers and sprinkles, before shower chances increase to about 60% again around or after midnight. Overnight showers should be relatively light, though a few periods of moderate rain are possible. Lows range from near 50 to the mid-50s. Confidence: Medium

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast into next week...

Tomorrow (Sunday): It’s not feeling too much like April with temperatures struggling to rise through the 50s during the day and periods of rain throughout. The heaviest activity should come from about midday into the evening. Like a winter storm, it’s somewhat hard to tell where the heaviest of the precipitation will end up, but whoever gets in it could pick up an additional 1-2”+, with much of the rest of the area shooting for around 0.75”-1”+ on the day. Winds also pick up, with 10-20 mph sustained and gusts past 30 mph. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Widespread heavier activity should wind down, though it’s a pretty good bet we’ll see passing showers at times through the night, and perhaps even a general mist when it’s not raining. Winds from the northwest blow around 15-20 mph with gusts past 30 mph. Lows range from the upper 30s to mid-40s. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

By Monday, the surface low pressure has moved well to our north, but the upper system is parked out overhead. That means we probably see no more of the heavier rains, but we’re likely to see some additional showers. It remains cool and blustery as well, with highs in the mid-or-upper 50s. Confidence: Medium

Heading into Tuesday, the upper low pulls away, yet it still continues to dominate the pattern across the northeast. At the very least, we should remain pretty cool -- with temperatures near 60 -- and fairly cloudy, particularly during the “heat” of the day. A few showers are also possible, though the odds are down from Monday. Confidence: Medium

Ian Livingston is a forecaster/photographer and information lead for the Capital Weather Gang. By day, Ian is a defense and national security researcher at a D.C. think tank.

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