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Posted at 05:10 AM ET, 07/03/2011

Forecast: Early-morning fireworks today; Rain-free fireworks tomorrow? Probably, but not a sure bet

Code Orange Air Quality Today

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Higher humidity fuels a chance of storms. I know it's a holiday weekend and all, but we could really use the rain.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy, more humid. Chance of storms. Near 90 to low 90s. | Tonight: 40% chance of evening storms. Near 70 to mid-70s. | Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated late-day storm? Near 90 to low 90s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Much of the area could really use some rain, so this morning’s storms and a chance later in the day as well isn’t exactly bad news, even if it is a holiday weekend. Today’s higher humidity relents a bit for the Fourth and storm chances scale back as well. But we’re not quite ready to give the “all clear” for fireworks time tomorrow evening, especially the further south you go.


Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): Showers and storms, some heavy with frequent lightning, depart during the early morning, setting the stage for a more humid and partly to mostly cloudy day - probably cloudy enough to limit afternoon highs to near 90 to the low 90s. As a cold front approaches, shower/storm chances rise again to around 40% for the mid-to-late afternoon. Confidence: Medium

Thundercast:

Probability: 90%/40%
Coverage: Widespread/Scattered
Most Likely Timing: Before 9 a.m./After 2 p.m.

Tonight: As the front pushes through, a 40% chance of storms remains into the evening before any storminess heads south and east of the area overnight. Lows are mild - near 70 to mid-70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through midweek...

Tomorrow (Fourth of July): Not quite as humid but still plenty warm, the bulk of the day looks pretty good ‘round here. With the cold front still to our south, some cloudy periods are possible, but I think we’ll get some good doses of sun as well. The front may be close enough for an isolated shower/storm or two (~20% chance) mainly from around D.C. and south, with increasing chances further south toward Fredericksburg. Daytime highs should reach near 90 to the low 90s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Due to the proximity of the cold front, I can’t rule out an isolated evening shower or storm - 20% chance, again primarily from around D.C. and south. But for now the odds favor fine conditions for most area fireworks celebrations. Just make sure to check back tomorrow for the latest. A little drop in humidity and a slight breeze from the northwest may be enough to keep the downtown crowds from feeling too smothering. Lows fall to the mid-60s to near 70 with clearing skies overnight or toward morning. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

As most head back to work Tuesday and Wednesday, we’ll encounter a couple of classic mid-Atlantic summer days. Plenty of sun shines between some fair-weather clouds that may pop up through the afternoons. Once again there’s the potential for an isolated thunderstorm, but chances probably don’t exceed 20% until you get south of the metro area. Both days should feature highs right around 90, with humidity on the rise by Wednesday. Confidence: Medium

By  |  05:10 AM ET, 07/03/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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