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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 05/23/2011

Forecast: Summery weather here for a while

A week of warmth, humidity & scattered storms

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Like Sunday but a little hotter, little more humid & little better storm chance knocks the digit down one.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny & humid. Early-morning shower? 40-50% chance of p.m. storms. Mid-80s. | Tonight: 40% chance of evening storms, muggy. 65-69. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny, remaining humid. 40% chance of p.m. storms. 84-90. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The upcoming Memorial Day weekend is typically the unofficial “mile marker” for the start of the summer season. However, our atmosphere has decided to accelerate things just a bit by delivering a classic summertime pattern this week. Above-normal temperatures in the 80s to near 90, moderate-to-high humidity, and daily chances of thunderstorms will give you that summer feeling each and every day this week, and possibly right through the holiday weekend.


Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): A slow-moving, large, warm and humid air mass that blankets the eastern half to third of the U.S. continues to build across our area today. The result? Heat and humidity are both higher than yesterday, bringing afternoon highs up to the mid-80s under partly sunny skies. We run a chance of an early-morning shower or road spray, leftover from activity that came through overnight, and a healthy risk (40-50% chance) of afternoon/evening t’storms. Winds from the south and southwest at 5-15 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Thundercast:

Probability: 40-50%
Coverage: Isolated to scattered
Most Likely Timing: Mainly after 1 p.m.

Tonight: Any evening storms (40% chance) should fade by mid-to-late evening as readings retreat toward early-morning lows in the mid-to-upper 60s with partly cloudy skies. Higher humidity may compel some of you to keep that air conditioning running, but temperatures are not yet at the muggier levels we tend to see later in the summer. Light winds from the south and southwest. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the Memorial Day weekend...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): The song remains the same with partly sunny skies, more above-normal warmth, more humidity, and more afternoon/evening thunderstorm opportunities. Highs range in the mid-80s to near 90 with storm chances about 40% and mainly a mid-to-late afternoon into early evening story. Those winds at 5 to 15 mph from the southwest continue to pump in the warmer and more humid air. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: More mugginess under partly cloudy skies and maybe a lingering evening shower or storm. Lows in the mid-to-upper 60s with light winds from the southwest. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Wednesday through Friday is a steady-state story of heat, humidity and later-day thunderstorm chances. A safe estimate for highs right now is probably mid-to-upper 80s, though there’s a chance we bump hotter to near 90 or the low 90s, especially by Thursday or Friday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. Afternoon-to-evening storm chances run around 30% each day. Overnight lows range from the mid-60s in the outer burbs to near 70 in the city. Confidence: Medium

The early take on the upcoming Memorial Day weekendis actually more of the same. A cold front approaching from the Midwest appears to lose steam, and we may get stuck in the same air mass of warmth, humidity and scattered thunderstorms. The exact location of the fading front will determine the weather we see - if it stalls out overhead, we could see more widespread clouds and storms. For now, I think we’re partly sunny and continued humid with highs in the 80s and a daily 40% chance of afternoon/evening storms. Welcome to unofficial summer! Confidence: Low-Medium

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 05/23/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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