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Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 05/01/2011

Forecast: Sun subsides, chance of showers

Tornado tally at 19 for Maryland and Virginia | National Weather Service tornado surveys for region (also: new tornado confirmed in Reston)

(originally posted at 5:00 a.m., update at 10 a.m.)

10:00 a.m. update: We’re upping rain shower chances from 30% to 50-60% as radar suggests we stand a slightly better than even chance of some generally light rain showers from late morning onward. The activity is scattered and, for most spots, most of the day should still by dry - but keep an umbrella handy.

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A somewhat subjective rating of the
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We'll lose style points compared to yesterday with more clouds and an outside shot of showers.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Clouds increase, chance of showers. Upper 60s. | Tonight: Showers end, mostly cloudy. Low-to-mid 50s. | Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, slight shower chance late. Low 70s. | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Yesterday’s perfect spring weather may well put today to shame, but our weather today shouldn’t be taken for granted. Sure, we’ll see a lot more clouds move in along with a shower or two but just appreciate how green your lawn is this time of year and all will be forgiven. Besides, as a cold front and area of low pressure approach as we head into the work week, our rain chances increase and we’ll look longingly back at this weekend and hope for its return.


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): A far cry from yesterday’s picture-perfectness, but still, today should be at least, adequate. Sunshine diminishes as clouds move in during the late morning hours. By the afternoon, a shower or two is possible (30% chance), but most of us should stay dry. This could change though, if the winds take on a more easterly component and bring in some marine air. Daytime highs reach the mid-to-upper 60s. Winds blow from the south-southeast at less than 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Showers begin to lift north as we get deeper into the night and come to an end southeast to northwest. Clouds remain a fixture and our skies and southerly flow continues to slowly bring in some moisture. Overnight lows dip to the low-to-mid 50s, with some fog possible, especially in areas that get a evening shower. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through midweek...

Tomorrow (Monday): A cold front approaches the area from the west on Monday but a slowly developing wave along it may slow it down enough to keep rain chances down. Just where, when and how strong this wave develops create too many questions to safely say we’ll remain rain-free, but I’ll keep our rain chances at 50% north and west and 20% south and east. For everyone, we have plenty of clouds through the day and mild temperatures, in the low-to-mid 70s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tomorrow night: Showers retreat northwestward again as we head into the overnight but we’ll keep a 20% chance in for some that linger behind. Other than that, we’ll see mostly cloudy skies and a relatively mild overnight, with lows in the upper 50s, lower 60s likely downtown. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Tuesday looks a little bit brighter as our cold front looks to be slowing down a bit. There’s a good chance the first half of our daytime remains gray but rain-free as the front gets hung up in the mountains. Showers and thunderstorms should move in later in the day though, and once they do, they’re not going anywhere. Daytime highs approach 70, though lower if rain does move in earlier, and overnight lows look much cooler, near 50. Confidence: Low-Medium

An area of low pressure moves almost directly over the region on Wednesday, leaving us very wet. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two are likely to remain for most of the day. Amounts up to an inch or so are possible by the time we dry out into Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Daytime highs get held well in check by the clouds and rain, only around 60 degrees. Confidence: Medium

By  |  10:00 AM ET, 05/01/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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