Forecast: Sunday soaker, then seasonable

1 a.m. Update: Some wet snow made it all the through the metro region, but any accumulation - mainly on grassy areas - has been limited to western Montgomery, western Fairfax and to the northwest. It’s these areas that should lookout for some slick spots early Monday morning as temperatures drop back into the upper 20s.

11 p.m. Update: A winter weather advisory which had been mainly in effect for the mountains, has been extended to cover Loudoun, northern Fauquier and Frederick counties until 3 a.m. The National Weather Service is calling for 1-3” in the advisory region, but amounts will be at the lower end of that range except in the higher terrain. Having said that, with temperature dropping to freezing or lower in these spots, look out for slick spots on untreated surfaces in the morning.

10 p.m. Update: Earlier flood warnings and watches have been allowed to expire as the moderate to heavy rain now lifts north of the area. But lighter showers continue at least occasionally for a few more hours, and new Flood Warnings have been issued for Rock Creek in D.C., Seneca Creek in Montgomery County, the Monocacy River near Frederick, and the Rappahannock River affecting Culpeper and Fauquier counties.

The rain has turned to or mixed with snow well west of D.C., around Leesburg (see pic) and to the west, where there’s been a little accumulation. Even the closer-in northern and western suburbs could see some snowflakes or sleet as the precipitation winds down, but no accumulation is expected. Can’t rule out some slick spots in western sections - Loudoun, Frederick, western Fairfax, and western Montgomery counties - later tonight as temperatures drop to near and just below freezing, though increasing winds should help guard against that.

Many areas along and west of I-95 have seen 1-2” of rain, with some spots to the west topping 2” (like Dulles - just over 2.25” as of 10 p.m.). It’s been more like 0.75-1.25” east of I-95. At 10 p.m. National Airport had reached around 1.4”

8:15 p.m. Update: We have one more area of heavy rain to move through the region over the next few hours. In the far west, northwest and northern suburbs, the rain may mix with or briefly change to sleet and/or snow before ending. Reports of rain, sleet and snow are now coming in from Loudoun county and accumulating snow has occurred in the mountains (see NWS reports). No accumulation is expected within about 60 miles of the District.

6:45 p.m. Update: Flood Warnings remain in effect for most of the area until 9:30 p.m. or 9:45 p.m. as the rain continues. Some locations should see storm totals approach or pass 2” before the rain ends later this evening. From the NWS: “ROCK CREEK IN THE DISTRICT IS AT 4.7 FEET AS OF 515 PM EST. THE CREEK IS LIKELY TO BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE OF 7 FEET DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.”

3:55 p.m. Update: A Flood Warning for small streams is in effect through 9:45 p.m. for D.C., Montgomery and P.G. (except the far southeastern tip) counties, with a separate Flood Warning for small streams in effect until 6:30 p.m. for Fairfax, Loudoun and counties to the southwest all the way to Charlottesville (see map). There have been several reports of water covering roadways in the western suburbs of D.C., according to the National Weather Service, thanks to the heavy rain which has fallen at a rate near .50” per hour in some areas.

originally posted at 5 a.m.; updated at 8:45 a.m.. 11:25 a.m. 4:20 p.m.

Today’s Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Little to like about the rain, except that we could use some. And at least it’s warm-ish early.
 
Get the ‘Digit’ on Twitter
EXPRESS FORECAST

Today:Rain moves in, heaviest in the afternoon. Mid-50s to near 60. | Tonight: Rain ends, becoming windy. Mid-30s. | Tomorrow: Sunny very breezy. Near 50 to low 50s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

A slow-moving cold front, and an area of low pressure developing along it, bring us a solid soaking today - enough rain potential to warrant a Flood Watch for the area except the far southern/southeastern counties (Stafford, Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s). Anyone complaining of drought should rejoice with an inch or more of rain possible for most. Following this front, we’ll enjoy a few seasonable days (though tomorrow is fairly windy) before another system approaches for the second half of the week.

””Snow Potential Index: 0 (→) - Nada, naught, zip, zilch, goose egg, bupkis, need I go on?
 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the ‘SPI’ on Twitter
 
””
Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Sunday): Light-to-moderate rain moves in from west to east this morning, maybe with a lull here and there as things get started, before giving way to eventually steady and sometimes moderate-to-heavy rain in the afternoon into evening. A rumble of thunder can’t be ruled out, especially south and east of town. The heaviest amounts likely stay just to the west - e.g., Frederick, Hagerstown, Front Royal. But amounts in and around the District should still be near 1” or in the 1-1.5” range, with locally heavier amounts possible especially in the western suburbs. Winds start the day from the south, helping to keep temps in the mid-50s to near 60 before dropping into the 40s later in the afternoon. Winds then shift to come out of the north toward evening, when they’ll start to gust a bit. Confidence : Medium-High

Tonight: As slowly as this front worked its way toward us, it looks to pick up speed on its way out. Any moderate to heavy rain that lasts into early evening diminishes from west to east by or during mid-evening, and we should be mostly done with the rain by late evening. Winds from the north at 15-25 mph with higher gusts pull in colder air, dropping lows to around the mid-30s as skies clear toward dawn. Confidence : Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through midweek...

Tomorrow (Monday): Guess what? More wind! It shouldn’t be windy enough to warrant an advisory or warning, but gusts from the northwest to around 30-35 mph are blustery enough to chill our colder highs - topping out near 50 to the low 50s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Confidence : Medium-High

Tomorrow Night: What, you thought March meant the end of winter jackets? Not so fast - it’s cold overnight as high pressure parks itself to our north, calming our winds and keeping skies mostly clear. All this adds up to lows in the 20s (suburbs) to near 30 (downtown). Confidence : Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Tuesday isn’t going to set any records for warmth, but all in all it’s a nice March day. Skies should be at least partly sunny, and with light winds highs in the mid-50s may be within reach. Partly cloudy Tuesday night as lows dip to near freezing. Confidence : Medium-High

On Wednesday, our next system approaches from the west. The result is increasing clouds, highs near 50 to the mid-50s, and a chance of rain by afternoon or night. Confidence : Medium

local

Success! Check your inbox for details. You might also like:

Please enter a valid email address

See all newsletters

Comments
Show Comments
Most Read

local

Success! Check your inbox for details.

See all newsletters