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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 02/17/2012

Forecast: Sunny and warm into early weekend; Sunday snow odds up

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
We're heading into a long weekend. Sunny and mild is just the way to start it.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Sunny and Mild. Low-to-mid 50s. | Tonight: Clear and cool. Upper 20s/low 30s. | Tomorrow: Increasing clouds. Low-to-mid 50s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Most of you are probably here hoping to see how much snow is in the forecast. We’ll get to that, but first we’ve got to address today and tomorrow, then enjoy it. Enjoy being the operative word with plenty of sun shining down and temperatures up into the 50s. Our developing Sunday storm looks primed to threaten the biggest snowfall this nearly snowless winter season, but with details still on the sketchy side, certainty isn't a part of the forecast yet.

Snow Potential Index: 6 (↑) - Snow Potential Index: 6 (↑) - Sunday snow odds looking better. Creeping closer, but still lots of questions.
 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Today (Friday): We may start off gray and gloomy and some areas likely see some fog form overnight. However, as the fog and low clouds mix out through the morning, it turns into quite a nice day to end the workweek. Full sun emerges in the blue skies overhead through the afternoon, and highs climb into the low-and-mid 50s. Not bad, eh? Confidence: High

Tonight: It’s clear, cool, and calm. A star-filled sky provides a perfect background for viewing the planets Jupiter and Venus shining brightly. Nighttime lows dip to near freezing (probably above in the city), with a few stray clouds beginning to filter in towards daybreak. Confidence: High

Keep reading for the forecast through midweek...

Tomorrow (Saturday): Well, it’s a little more on the cloudy side, but with southerly flow boosting the warmth, it’s still pretty nice. Mostly sunny skies turn partly sunny, then finally mostly cloudy as the day progresses and our developing storm draws closer. Despite this cloudiness, our temps still manage to once again get up into the low-to-mid 50s. Confidence: High

Tomorrow night: The Sunday storm approach continues, leaving us with plenty of clouds to deal with overnight. Some of the southernmost folks in the area may get into a bit of rain or snow well after midnight but for the immediate metro, the night should remain mainly dry. Overnight lows reach the low-to-mid 30s. Confidence: Medium-High

Sunday: The storm arrives. You might know the scenarios: If the storm tracks too far south, we miss out on precipitation; too far north, and warmth comes with it bringing some rain along. For bigger snow, we need that “just right” track to keep us close enough to get into the heavier activity, and far enough from the low to keep us cold.

Enough guidance has come into agreement now to favor at least measurable snowfall, with a better than 50% chance of 1” or greater, and it’s trended nicely for those die-hard snow lovers wishing for even more. Precipitation — snow, rain changing to snow, or rain — arrives in the morning and continues ’til about evening. It could be heavy at times depending on to-be-determined specifics. Daytime highs only reach the mid-30s to near 40, potentially early, and depending on the exact storm track. Confidence: Low-Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Sunday night: The storm winds down as diminishing snow showers in the evening. Behind them, breezy conditions and colder temperatures move in with overnight lows reaching the mid-to-upper 20s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Monday dawns with mostly sunny skies, even if it’s a bit on the cool side. High pressure moves in behind our storm but it’s not quite enough to dislodge the colder air behind the storm just yet. Daytime highs only reach the low-to-mid 40s. Confidence: Medium

Skies remain mostly cloudy for most of Tuesday, but later in the day we could see an increase in clouds as high pressure moves away. We’re looking warmer though, with highs returning to near 50 degrees. Confidence: Medium

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 02/17/2012

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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