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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 02/14/2012

Forecast: Unsettled into the weekend, but generally mild

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Clouds & shower chances offer some gloom but warmer than bout of weekend cold. Add 1 for Valentine's..
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Cloudy, slight shower risk. 47-52. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy, slight shower risk. 32-37. | Tomorrow: Partly-to-mostly sunny. 50-55. | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

As we observe a cloudy Valentine’s Day today, it is helpful to remember that the weather is very much like love- it has its ups and downs, offers some great surprises, and yet it can be painfully unpredictable.

The active jet stream pattern brings a weather system to our neighborhoods every two to three days. The next one arrives today with clouds and a slight chance of showers. Clearing tomorrow brings us nice 50s, while another round of showers and clouds return for Thursday. Friday is better, and the weekend looks mostly nice, except for an outside chance of a Sunday into President’s Day problem (see below for details).

Snow Potential Index: 3 (↑) - Chance flakes early this morning and weekend opportunity add up to a low potential
 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Today (Tuesday): A very weak and disorganized weather system bumbles its way through our region today into this evening. Its biggest impact is probably cloud cover that holds our high temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Otherwise, there is a 20% chance of a shower with the best chance north and west of the city. If the precipitation comes in early enough, it may take the form of some patchy light snow or flurries, but shouldn’t last long. Light winds are from the south and southeast at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Partly-to-mostly cloudy skies with still a slight chance of a shower (20%). Lows in the low-to-mid 30s with light winds. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): A modest high pressure area arrives to offer more sunshine and warmer conditions. We could still see some scattered clouds at times. Highs hit the low-to-mid 50s (nice!) with light winds from the west and northwest at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: That high pressure doesn’t hang around long and cloud cover rolls in quickly ahead of the next weather system. Clouds should hold low temperatures warmer with upper 30s to low 40s favored. We have a chance (~30%) of a shower toward dawn. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday’s disturbance is meatier with better chances of rain (60%) across the area. I don’t expect an all-day washout, but periods of showers could be annoying at times. Temperatures are still relatively mild in the upper 40s to low 50s. Showers end in the evening with partly cloudy skies overnight. Lows in the mid-to-upper 30s to around 40. Confidence: Medium

Friday finds the sun again! Mostly sunny skies help, but temperatures only manage the upper 40s to low 50s due to a slightly cooler air mass moving onto the East Coast. Mostly clear skies Friday night allow temperatures to probably drop near to below freezing in the outer suburbs to the mid 30s in the city. Confidence: Low-Medium

The holiday weekend forecast is complicated. Right now, Saturday looks to be the warmest day with the best chance of sunshine. Highs push into the lower 50s with partly sunny skies. Clouds move back into the picture that night with lows ranging through the 30s. But Sunday into Monday (what is it about President’s Day around here?) sees a storm system passing to our south (and turning up the coast?). It may come close enough to our area to offer clouds and precipitation Sunday into early Monday. I prefer the more tranquil scenario right now with partly-to-mostly cloudy skies (and much of the precipitation remaining to our south) and highs in the mid-to-upper 40s. But this forecast could change. Confidence: Low

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 02/14/2012

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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