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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 03/21/2011

Forecast: Unsettled start to unsettled week

Updated at 6:45 a.m., originally posted at 5 a.m.

Showers today, chilly late week period

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Mild, even if we have to dodge some showers.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: A few showers, mild. 65-70. | Tonight: Evening showers/storms then partial clearing. 42-48. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny, becoming cloudy late. Around 60.| A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Today marks the first “official”full day of spring (by the astronomical calendar, at least) and it will feel pretty spring-like with 60s with some spring showers and even some thunderstorms. But in case you’ve forgotten, early spring around D.C. can be fickle and that will be the case this week. The weather is not going to get into any sort of rhythm bouncing back and forth between wet and dry. And counter to what you might expect, temperatures generally trend downward rather than upward.


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Monday): Morning showers and thunderstorms pass through early as a warm front lifts northward. A few storms may produce heavy downpours, lightning and even small hail. During the afternoon, we’ll probably see intervals of sunshine with gusty winds from the south at 10-20 mph (gusts a bit higher) bringing up mild air. Highs range from the mid-60s to near 70. Late in the afternoon and, especially, into the evening there’s a 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Confidence: Medium

Thundercast:

Probability of thunder: 70% morning, 30-40% (afternoon/evening)

Coverage: Widespread this morning, and scattered with best chance south & southeast of District for possible second round.

Most Likely Timing: 6 a.m.-8 a.m. and 4-8 p.m

Tonight: A cold front pushes through, perhaps (30-40% chance) setting of some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Widespread severe storms aren’t expected but a strong storm or two could pop up, especially south and southeast of town. Late in the evening, we see partial clearing, with lows ranging from the low 40s in the colder suburbs to upper 40s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): This might be one of the nicer days of the week. With highs around 60, it’s not exceptionally warm - but winds are light and rain chances hold off until evening. Partly sunny skies for a good part of the day completely cloud over late. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Monday’s cold front lifts northward as a warm front and a wave of low pressure appproaches from the west. That brings the likelihood (60-70% chance) of rain with lows in the 40s. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Waves of low pressure ride along a front stalled over the region Wednesday into early Thursday bringing periods of rain. It won’t rain continuously, however. During this period, gradually colder air seeps into the region. On Wednesday highs are probably 50-55 but could get a little warmer if the cold air is delayed. Wednesday night turns chilly, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Rain on Thursday is probably limited to some pop-up afternoon showers as the front gets pushed south. But it’s most likely blustery, with highs only around 50 and gusty winds from the north. Clearing and cold Thursday night, with lows in the upper 20s (colder suburbs) and 30s. Confidence: Medium

Friday looks to be dry, but it’s considerably colder than average, with highs only near 50 and lows in the mid-20s to mid-30s (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium

Another weather system approaches for Saturday and Sunday, probably bringing more precipitation. Notice I’m saying precipitation rather than only rain - because it’s not out of the question other forms of precipitation besides rain enter the picture. Highs may only be around 40 with lows 30-35. Confidence:Low

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 03/21/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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