5 p.m. Update: Intensity of showers and storms in immediate D.C. area has decreased as they’ve come through, though pockets of heavy rain and isolated lightning still exist, and a cell riding east along the southern branch of the Beltway in central P.G. County looks to be getting stronger. Really strong stuff is well to the south in Charles County.
4:15 p.m. Update: Line of showers and storms coming from west now approaching west/southwest branch of Beltway. Storms should be worst from D.C. & to the south, with heavy rain and frequent lightning likely, as they pass west to east through area between now and around 6 p.m. Folks north of around Gaithersburg may not see too much action. Only severe warning right now is to the south from eastern Stafford into southern Charles counties.
Check back in this space for updates as warranted. Follow live updates via our Twitter feed above. Monitor radar and severe warnings below, and below that see Ian Livingston’s full forecast into next week...
From earlier...EXPRESS FORECAST
Today: Peeks of sun, numerous p.m. showers and t’storms. Upper 80s to lower 90s. | Tonight: Evening showers and t’storms, trending mostly cloudy. Upper 60s to low 70s. | Tomorrow: Chance of showers and t’storms. Clearing late? Mid-80s to near 90. | Get Express Forecast by E-mailFORECAST IN DETAIL
After the barrage of heat this week, I wish there was some fully relaxing weather news for our weekend, but it’s probably going to be touch and go for the first two-thirds or so (may salvage late Sunday?). We’ve got multiple features – including a stalled out frontal boundary – coming together today to produce what should be fairly widespread showers and storms this afternoon into at least the evening. Tomorrow’s a day of transition, as we may end up with a few quality ones afterwards.
Today (Saturday): While partly sunny skies could (can’t totally rule out an early shower or rumble from overnight activity) last through the morning, we’re likely to see mostly cloudy conditions by the afternoon with showers and storms breaking out — 60%-70% chance — across the area. Some storms may be strong to severe, and there’s also the threat for heavy rain, especially with any storms which move slowly. Highs reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Confidence: Medium
Tonight: Showers and storms are likely into the evening, some may still be severe, and heavy rain remains a threat. The risk should eventually decrease as the atmosphere becomes a bit more stable during the night, though a few hit-or-miss showers or storms are possible throughout. Lows bottom out in the steamy upper 60s to lower 70s. Confidence: Medium
Keep reading for the forecast through the beginning of a pretty nice beginning of next week (and for earlier storm updates)...
Tomorrow (Sunday): We probably do it again to some degree on Sunday, though with any luck we might get the front through before the day is out. For now, I’m leaning pessimistic on that idea, so that means partly-to-mostly cloudy skies with showers and t’storms possible into the afternoon (50-60% chance). Hopefully everything pushes to the east before sunset. Before any cooler and drier air filters in, we see highs in the mid-80s to near 90. Confidence: Medium
Tomorrow night: Skies trend clearer as the night wears on. The best part might be the northwest breeze ushering in cooler and drier air. Open the windows? It just might work with lows near 60 in the suburbs to the mid-60s downtown! Confidence: MediumA LOOK AHEAD
Too bad we were not able to place Monday and Tuesday over the weekend. It’s looking rather stellar, especially after what we’ve been through. It’s far enough out something could go wrong, but partly sunny skies and highs near 80 to the mid-80s with lows in the 60s is hard to beat this time of year. There’s the slightest risk of a late-day shower due to some cooler air aloft, but I would not plan on it. Confidence: Medium
Earlier storm updates...
3:55 p.m. Update: Only warning in effect now is for an isolated storm in northern Calvert and southern Anne Arundel counties. But still the line of storms coming from the west, now reaching western Fairfax County, contains areas of heavy rain and frequent lightning, mainly from I-66 to the south, though the intense portion of the line could build north as it moves west to east through the immediate area between now and around 6 p.m. (more storms could form ahead of or behind this line).
2:45 p.m. Update: A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving into the far western suburbs and advancing east, and with it a Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for northern Fauquier, southwest-central Loudoun and northwest Prince William counties until 3:30 p.m. Quarter-size hail and winds over 60 mph are possible in the warned areas. This line of storms should move through the immediate metro areat between approximately 3:45 and 6 p.m., though more storms could form ahead of or behind the line.