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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 12/06/2011

Forecast: Warm and wet could turn white Wednesday night

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Gray and wet does little to help the mood, but it's still on the warm side so I gotta give some credit.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Showery and lots of gray. Low 60s. | Tonight: Scattered showers. Low 50s. | Tomorrow: Periods of showers, cooler. Falling from the low 50s.| Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

All good things must come to and end, and our recent stretch of dry and relatively warm weather is no exception. Starting today, the forecast turns significantly wetter through the midweek. While we’ll still enjoy the warmth today, that’s on its way out Wednesday. As the temperatures drop, the showers do not, leaving us with our next chance of snow Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

Snow Potential Index: 3 (↑) - Models trying to reach consensus but pattern supports some flakes early Thursday AM. "Accumulating" being the criteria that holds down the index number.
 
The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter
 

Today (Tuesday): We’re not looking for an all-day washout, but don’t expect to see many bright spots in the forecast today. We start off foggy and drizzly and don’t improve much from there. On and off showers make it one of those days that even though nothing may be currently falling from the sky, everything seems to be wet anyway. One saving grace, at least it’s still mild out there with highs getting up into the low-to-mid 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: I’m not seeing much improvement heading into the overnight. The rain showers may turn a little more intermittent, but we’ll still see fog/drizzle during breaks. In a word, damp. Still, temperatures don’t fall off that much, staying in the low 50s through the night. Confidence: Medium-High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the latest on our snow chances later this week...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Another round of rain moves through. This time, we don’t have the luxury of warmth to temper it. And the rain may be a bit more on the steady side. Temperatures don’t rise all that much, and probably fall during the afternoon into or even through the 40s after early highs in the low 50s. Winds from the south turn to out of the north. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: I’m sure some of you jumped right to this section of the forecast this morning. Yes, we’re going to talk about SNOW! Guidance is still suggesting a strengthening coastal low developing off the DelMarva but the question is will it pull down enough cold air down to give us a puncher’s chance for some snow accumulation at night? Wes Junker discussed the problems with the set up yesterday so I’ll spare the details but we’re expecting rain with a good chance to transition to sleet and then snow. Near and east of I-95, temperatures are marginally above freezing so accumulations are iffy. As usual, the north and western suburbs will be a tad colder and stand a better chance of accumulation. Stay tuned for updates later today. Confidence: Low-Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Lingering rain/snow showers move away early Thursday. In their wake, our skies begin to clear, becoming mostly sunny by the afternoon. We’ll be much cooler than we have been of late, though still warm enough that most anything that accumulated shouldn’t be long for this world. Daytime highs climb into the upper 40s.

Onto Thursday night, will we finally see Reagan National Airport’s first freeze? It’s gonna be a cold one as high pressure takes over bringing calm and clear conditions for the overnight. Lows should reach the mid-to-upper 20s outside the beltway, with the lower 30s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

High pressure is in control of nearly the the entire continental U.S. by Friday, and it’s looking cold over much of the country. For us, that means lots of sun, but highs only making it into the mid-to-upper 40s. Confidence: Medium-High

The weekend is tranquil but quite chilly. Under sunny skies, highs Saturday are in the low 40s and moderate to just the mid-40s by Sunday. Overnight lows range from the low 20s in the colder suburbs to near 30 downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 12/06/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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