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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 05/03/2011

Forecast: Warm today with thunderstorms tonight

More showers tomorrow AM, then a cooler balance of week

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
You may not agree with me but I like low 80s and partly sunny skies even if we get some humidity
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly sunny, a bit muggy. 80-85. | Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms (severe possible). 55-59. | Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy and cool with mainly morning showers. 60-65. | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Our spring weather continues to bounce around and it is difficult to get two days in a row of the same weather. Yesterday, we had highs in the 70s, today we hit the 80s, tomorrow cool 60s, and we could even repeat the 60s on Thursday before 70s Friday and maybe, maybe, consistent 70s for the weekend too. Temperatures aside, the main weather concern we are monitoring is a slight risk for severe storms tonight as a cold front swings through the area. Look for showery conditions tomorrow, but mainly in the morning.

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map powered by iMapWeather (base map by Google). Click and hold on map to pan. Double-click to zoom. Refresh page to update. See larger map on our Weather Wall.

Today (Tuesday): Today is the peak day of the week with regard to temperatures as winds from the south (10-15 mph) and partly sunny skies help upgrade our high temperatures into the lower to maybe middle 80s. Clouds may increase a bit more toward late afternoon and evening, but I believe precipitation should hold off until the later evening (except for maybe far western suburbs). Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms develop after around 8 p.m. - some of which may be severe. The best chance of severe weather is toward northwest Maryland and into West Virginia. The chance of rain is at least 90% with rainfall totals between .25”-.5”with locally higher amounts. Lows are in the mid-to-upper 50s, with winds coming from the southwest and then shifting to out of the northwest late at night (running at about 10-15 mph, but higher gusts around storms). Confidence: Medium

Thundercast:

Probability of storms: 90%
Coverage: Widespread
Most Likely Timing: 8 p.m. - 2 a.m. (west to east)
Primary severe weather risk: Strong winds (15% chance) and hail (10% chance)

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): A cool Canadian air mass dips into the area, but the slow-moving cold front and an associated weather system keeps enough instability around to lock in lots of cloud cover and showers, especially in the morning. Highs are only expected to reach the low 60s (yes, that’s a 20-degree drop from the day before!) with cool winds up to 15 mph at times from the north and northwest making it feel a bit cooler. Rains shouldn’t be heavy, but we could see a moderate morning shower or two. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Clearing skies, calming winds, and chillier conditions reach our area as lows dip into the low-to-mid 40s (coolest in the outer suburbs). Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday finds a cool, upper level trough swinging through our area. We should get a mixture of clouds and sun in this situation, but temperatures could again struggle to move upwards very far. I’m thinking upper 60s right now as offered by most of the model guidance, but we saw last weekend that these types of air masses can surprise us to the cool side too if we get too many clouds going with the upper level instability. Clouds should fade away Thursday night with lows in the mid-to-upper 40s. Confidence: Medium

Friday is looking tricky right now as a disturbance is forecast to roll through the area, triggering a chance of showers (40%). An associated weak cold front in the afternoon seems to be the most likely timing for those showers. Now, I think the mainly westerly flow combined with the departing cool air mass should position us to get into the low 70s; however, there is a chance we get too many clouds and showers to once again hold us back a bit lower yet. Partly to mostly cloudy skies Friday night with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Confidence: Low-Medium

The weekend is also peppered with nuisance weather systems that offer chances of clouds and maybe showers. Saturday looks like the better day right now with partly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. We have a 30% chance of late afternoon or evening showers along with increasing clouds as a warm front approaches. Partly cloudy with more showers possible Saturday night (same 30% odds) with lows mainly in the 50s. Rain chances increase (to at least 40%) under partly to mostly cloudy skies on Sunday with temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s. Confidence: Low

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 05/03/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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