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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 09/20/2011

Forecast: Warmer out with showers about; weekend weather trending worse

9:15 a.m. update: Rain chances are effectively 100% today with light to moderate showers covering the region. We may see a break in the rain by early to mid-afternoon but cannot rule out some more scattered showers and storms into the evening.

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Warming trends are nice, but your official CWG curmudgeon thinks clouds and showers hold us back.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly cloudy, showers, warmer. 77-80. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy. 59-66. | Tomorrow: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. 79-83. | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

While recent cooler weather has certainly put everyone in an autumn mindset after a hot summer, finding some warmth in the final days of summer (official calendar autumn starts Friday) isn’t really a bad thing. We start the process today with mainly 70s and then find low 80s tomorrow that may feel warmer due to high humidity levels. Unfortunately, our last days’ of summer warming are also peppered with clouds, showers, and storms. And the latest trends for the weekend show some cooling, but along with more clouds and showers.

Today (Tuesday): Winds from the south bring in warmer temperatures, mostly cloudy skies, and a 50-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to around 80 are expected, but precipitation could knock those temperatures back at times if you are under or near them. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: A 20% chance of evening showers or storms; otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies with light winds from the south. Lows range from the upper 50s to low 60s. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Partly cloudy skies with warmer high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Those winds from the south continue to pump in more warmth and humidity (it may feel like mid or even upper 80s for a few hours in the afternoon). We continue to see a chance for showers and storms (30-40% risk) with the best chance in the afternoon and evening. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Partly to mostly cloudy and muggy with more light winds from the south. Lows from 62-68 (suburb-city) Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday brings the cold front closer to our area, but forecast guidance trends over the past 24 hours suggest that the actual passage may get pushed back to Friday. This lowers the coverage and chance of afternoon showers and storms (40% now), and it increases the chance we get another day in the 80s. The regional range should be upper 70s to low 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. As the front closes in on Thursday night, rain chances improve to 60% under cloudy skies and lows ranging through the 60s. Confidence: Medium

Friday brings the cold front into our area with more clouds, showers/storms, and a bit cooler weather. Temperatures peak in the mid-to-upper 70s with a 60% likelihood of showers and storms. The twist in the forecast is that this cold front stalls over our area. So conditions remain humid, and we keep shower/storm chances going into Friday night (60% chance). Lows in the upper 50s to mid-60s under mostly cloudy skies. Confidence: Low-Medium

The weekend outlook is unfortunately deteriorating. A very large, lumbering upper level low is forecast to stall in the Ohio Valley. That keeps our cold front lingering on the weekend- especially on Saturday. Temperatures at least stay warmer (mid-to-upper 70s), but it also keeps the wetness around. Rain chances are highest on Saturday (60%) and Saturday night (40%) before diminishing on somewhat on Sunday (30%). While Saturday and Saturday night should be mostly cloudy, I believe we could sneak some sun peeks in for Sunday afternoon. Confidence: Low-Medium

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 09/20/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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