Following yesterday’s “high risk” tornado outbreak, which caused (as of publication) around 50 reports of tornadoes, plus hundreds more wind and hail reports, the system responsible is trucking east through parts of the Midwest, as well as the Mississippi and Ohio valleys. Several tornado watches are already up. A high risk from the Storm Prediction Center is about a 1-3 times per year occurrence, so to get back-to-back days of such is quite unusual. This is the second time we’ve seen that in 2011, the first during the super outbreak in April.
Given the multiple tornado tragedies this season, in some ways it may seem the central U.S. dodged a bullet yesterday, as even with multiple large and violent tornadoes, the human impact was lesser than recent. Despite any good news on that level, at least 13 people died, and damaging storms impacted major urban areas like Oklahoma City and Dallas.
Keep reading for more on yesterday’s tornado outbreak in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, plus today’s storm outlook.
Activity fired up quickly yesterday afternoon (see a satellite loop from initiation to sunset) as a storm system moved out of the Rockies and into the Great Plains. By mid-to-late afternoon, several large supercells producing tornadoes were ongoing in parts of Kansas and west of Oklahoma City. Fortunately for the highly-populated areas, this time the worst of the storms largely missed.
However, there were harrowing times Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas and Arkansas. Even the Storm Prediction Center itself in Norman, OK was briefly evacuated as storms approached the region, as were other NOAA offices centered in the area. Large, often rain wrapped, tornadoes on the ground mercifully lifted or weakened on approach. And as the evening progressed, the severe weather zipped down the cold front/dry line into north Texas, where numerous tornado warnings were issued in the Dallas metro area. Large hail, to the size of softballs, was also reported in Texas.
Even battered Joplin found itself under the gun again as first a line of severe storms passed through, then tornado warnings were issued to the north and south of the area impacted this weekend. Thankfully, no additional major damage was reported there, but it was undoubtedly not what local residents needed at this time.
Today, the focus shifts east, with a high risk area centered on where Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas come together. The tornado threat is again very significant, if perhaps a touch lower stats wise (30% within 25 miles of a point v. 45% within the same) than yesterday. On the flip side of any slightly positive news compared to yesterday’s potential, this area has more population concentration, and lower visibility (to know something is coming) overall. Plus, tornadoes don’t necessarily care about probabilities.
With a continued volatile setup, fueled by high heat and humidity colliding with an intense storm system and strong jet stream overhead, we’ll have to keep our fingers crossed that any “luck” from yesterday carries over to today.
Videos from yesterday...
Keeping track today...