Unless you live in Frederick or Loudoun county, at an elevation above 1,000 feet or so, do not expect to see much in the way of snow tonight and tomorrow. This is mostly a rain event.
Here are the key takeaways based on the latest information:
* Expect precipitation to move in tonight between 1 and 4 a.m. and continue intermittently into Tuesday afternoon. Most precipitation ends by 5 p.m.
* Precipitation will tend to be light although a few moderate bursts are possible mainly west and northwest of the District. The equivalent total rainfall should be between 0.2-0.4 inches in the metro region.
* Precipitation type should mainly be rain, although there’s a chance sleet and/or wet snowflakes mix in at times, mainly west and northwest of a line from Manassas to Fairfax to Rockville. No snow accumulation is expected. Temperatures will be safely above freezing.
* Enough wet snow to whiten the ground (mostly on grassy areas) is most likely west and northwest of a line from Leesburg to Frederick, mainly at higher elevations.
* Enough snow to shovel is likely confined to high elevations in eastern West Virginia, western Maryland, and southwest Pennsylvania.
Here’s CWG winter weather expert Wes Junker’s take on the situation:
“Another cold rain appears on tap for most of the Washington-Baltimore area as temperatures will generally be in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees when the precipitation falls. However, areas west of Leesburg and Frederick could see some snow as the forecast temperature in Frederick area tomorrow morning at 7:00 a.m. is expected to be in the 34-35 degree range with the temperatures only rising to 36 or 37 by afternoon. Therefore, some of the higher elevations nearby could see snow, possibly with some accumulations on grass. However, if the models are off by a couple of degrees then places like Leesburg and Frederick could even see small accumulations on grassy areas.”
“The most likely areas to get more significant accumulating snow are the usual elevated cold spots like Garrett County and towns like Cumberland and Oakland, Maryland.”
Here are some maps from various forecast outlets for comparison with ours and the National Weather Service map above: