updated at 4:40 p.m. and 6:40 p.m.; originally posted at 3:40 p.m.
After a freezing start, temperatures have rebounded into the mid-40s to around 50. But that’s about 10 degrees below average. The evening remains cold while it clouds over. And don’t be surprised to see some showers of rain and snow overnight before we temporarily dry out tomorrow.
Through Tonight: A weak disturbance sweeping through the region probably (60% chance) brings some rain showers as early as 5 or 6 p.m. in the western suburbs and between 7 and 9 p.m. in the District and east. Although rain showers are most likely at the onset, they may mix with or briefly change to snow showers later at night. A higher percentage of the precipitation falls in the form of snow as you head west and up in elevation. Precipitation is likely to cutoff between midnight and 2 a.m. The precipitation is probably scattered and intermittent and some areas may not experience much more than cloudy skies. Little or no snow accumulation is expected except well to the southwest and in the mountains where slightly more than a dusting could fall. Late at night, skies partially clear, with lows 29-34 (suburbs-city).
Tomorrow (Saturday): We’re in between two disturbances, so it’s not a terrible day even if quite chilly. In other words, not bad running weather. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy with highs only reaching the mid-to-upper 40s. Winds are from the north at 5-10 mph.
Winter storm watches posted far southwest Saturday night & Sunday: We talked about the potential for 1” or so of snow around the metro region Sunday in our Snow Lover’s Crystal Ball, but significantly higher amounts are possible to our southwest. As nearby as Charlottesville, Waynesboro and Harrisonburg, a Winter Storm Watch (see map) has been posted for the potential for 5” of snow - especially at high elevations above 2,000 feet.
Update (at 4:40 p.m.) on Sunday snow chance: Both this morning’s Euro and SREF models as well as this afternoon’s NAM are simulating less snow than previous runs for Sunday and a sharp northern cutoff. Accumulation prospects (our one inch “most likely” forecast notwithstanding) are growing tenuous. We’ll keep you posted in updates tonight and tomorrow...
Update (at 6:40 p.m.) on Sunday snow chance: The GFS still spits out close to 0.2” liquid equivalent so an inch or so is still in play...but chances of much more than that aren’t great.