PM Update: Showers and a storm possible through evening; changeable weather thereafter

October 19, 2011

It’s been a rather cool and clammy day with winds and moisture rushing in off the ocean. Following early-morning rain, we’ve seen mainly some passing showers since, which have not amounted to a lot most spots. Now we await the next spoke of energy to see if it touches off storms heading into evening. Given today’s stable (little sun, little warmth) air mass, the severe storm threat caused by a major upper-level low to the west should be muted.

Through Tonight: Expect plenty of change through the night. First we run a risk of showers and even storms through the evening before a wind turning south eventually switches to the west. While we can’t 100% rule out an isolated severe storm featuring winds or tornado potential, the best odds appear to be well south and east of the area. Otherwise, the region stays in the mild and soupy air mass through midnight or a bit longer. It could actually be one of those times where daily highs occur shortly after midnight, though we’ll get close to that range again during the day on Thursday. Lows reach near 50 to the mid-50s prior to sunrise on an increasingly gusty west wind.

Tomorrow (Thursday): It’s partly to mostly clear in the wake of today’s storm system. The main story is probably wind, as it’ll be fairly strong -- sustained around 15-20 mph for a time during the mid-day or afternoon, with gusts past 30 mph possible. Highs should reach near 60 to the mid-60s.

See Dan Stillman’s forecast through the weekend. And if you haven’t already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter .

A few tasty grapes: California’s unusually cool and wet weather this summer (for the second year in a row) has caused a bit of a shortage in wine grape production, down 9 percent from last year’s low yield. However, in this case less might be more for wine lovers as the crop is being described as top quality fruit. Still, if you’re looking for bargains on California wine, you might be hard pressed following this season.

Pollen update: Walter Reed’s Susan Kosisky writes, “Grass and weed pollen counts are in the LOW range, tree pollen is absent. Mold spores are just in the HIGH range at 13161.15 spores/cubic meter.”

Ian Livingston is a forecaster/photographer and information lead for the Capital Weather Gang. By day, Ian is a defense and national security researcher at a D.C. think tank.
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