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Posted at 02:40 PM ET, 05/16/2011

PM Update: Shower/t’storm chances persist; rainier tomorrow

7:40 p.m. update: Severe Thunderstorm Warning for central Prince William, southwest fringe of Fairfax, east-central Fauquier, and southern tip of Loudoun until 8:15 pm. Quarter-size hail, damaging wind gusts over 60 mph possible with these storms. Heaviest rain in Manassas now as whole line moves northwest (915 pm: Due to the heavy rain, a Flash Flood Warning is in effect until 12:30 a.m. in and around the Manassas area).

5:30p.m. update: A line of storms extends from Arlington through eastern Montgomery county and into southern Howard county. This activity is moving from southeast to northwest - opposite typical storm motion. Locally heavy rain is possible with these storms as they slowly head into central Montgomery and Howard counties. Drive carefully in what may be a slow commute home on the north side of the beltway toward I270. Watch radar for more hit or miss showers and storms to possibly develop to the southeast and head toward the region through the evening.

From 2:40 p.m.: Given the fairly low Daily Digits of the last two days, I am not finding too much to complain about myself, especially considering daylight hours have been largely dry. Then again, I missed the really nice period that came before it while out of town. Anyway, today’s highs in the mid-and-upper 70s are running pretty close to average for this time of year, though the humidity levels remain a bit higher than usual for May.


Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: Scattered showers are possible (50-60%) through the evening and into the night -- coverage should remain limited for now though, potentially increasing into morning. Otherwise, it’s mostly cloudy. With still balmy levels of humidity and an east or southeast wind continuing, lows only dip to around 60.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): It’s looking more consistently wet during the day (80% chance of showers/storms) than the past few. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to come in waves, probably providing some periods without rain as well. Some spots which see multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain could end up with .5”-1”+ as showers and storms continue to rotate around a low to our south. The extra rain during the day should keep temperatures near 70 or into the low 70s, but if we get enough sun in spots a few mid-70s are possible.

See Jason Samenow’s forecast through the weekend. And if you haven’t already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter .

April 27-28 tornadoes: Another tornado has been confirmed from the April 27-28 outbreak in the area, bringing the total count in the larger NWS Baltimore/Washington region to 18. This one, which occurred at Potomac Airfield in Prince Georges County and damaged some aircraft, was an EF-0 with winds estimated at 70 mph and a track length of .4 miles.

Pollen update: Walter Reed reports that, thanks to the recent rains, mold spores are HIGH at 25,929.21 spores/cubic meter. Grass pollen is LOW (moderate for area counts) at 4.47 grains/cubic meter. Tree pollen remains HIGH at 133.23 grains/cubic meter and weed pollen is LOW at 0.96 grains/cubic meter.

By  |  02:40 PM ET, 05/16/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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