Flash Flood Warnings in effect for much of metro area
Forecast and timeframe of activity
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Tropical Storm Warning for most of D.C. metro area
Flash Flood watch for most of D.C. metro area
Tornado Watch until 8 p.m. Calvert, St Marys (and bay)
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8:35 p.m.: Rain totals continue to mount across the area, particularly from I-95 and to the southeast as bands of rain rotate through. As much as 2-4” has fallen in the wettest locations locally, with 4”+ more common to the south and east of there. Winds now sustained around 25-30 mph will continue to increase over the coming period, with peak winds expected between now and dawn. Numerous tree and poll downing reports are coming in from areas near the bay like Annapolis, Cape St Claire and Arnold. Further east, in Lewes, De., a tornado has apparently caused damage.
7:35 p.m.: Latest on power outages: More than 6,500 homes and businesses in D.C., 15,000 in Prince George’s County, 10,000 in Anne Arundel and 5,000 around Baltimore. Expect these numbers to rise as we head into the windiest period of the storm now into the overnight.
6:55 p.m.: Updating the beaches: Washington Post dispatches report tornado sirens have gone off three times today in Rehoboth Beach, where ocean surf is now up to the dunes and only 10 yards from the Boardwalk, and that looting has occurred in Virginia Beach. NBC4’s Veronica Johnson says hotel rooms are leaking and ceilings are coming down in Ocean City.
6:25 p.m.: The Flash Flood Warnings continue to multiply, with the latest around Baltimore and to the northeast, until 12:15 a.m. (6:40 p.m.: And a Flood Warning, until 12:30 a.m., in St. Mary’s and southern Calvert counties).
Regional wind & power outage update (5:50 p.m.): Notable recent winds gusts include 52 mph at Wallops Island, 44 mph at Quantico, 45 mph at Ocean City and Salisbury, 47 mph at Patuxent River, 56 mph at Richmond, and 69 mph at Williamsburg. About 10,000 homes in Prince George’s County, 1,000 each in D.C. and Baltimore, and 5,000 in Anne Arundel County were without power.
5:33 p.m.: Flash Flood Warning until 11:30 p.m. through the core of the D.C. metro area. Includes D.C., southeastern Howard, southeastern Montgomery, northwestern Anne Arundel, northern Prince George’s, northeastern Stafford, Arlington, southeastern Prince William and Fairfax counties, southeastern City of Manassas Park, City of Alexandria, City of Fairfax and City of Falls Church.
5:30 p.m.: Scary storm surge forecasts from the National Weather Service for Maryland & Delaware beaches:
THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR COMBINED STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WATERS UP TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WITHIN AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST...RESULTING IN WORST CASE FLOOD INUNDATION OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVEGROUND LEVEL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SURGE ZONE.THE LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO REALIZE THE GREATEST LOODINGINCLUDE OCEAN CITY AND WACHAPREAGUE AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THECHESAPEAKE BAY. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF IMPACT WILL BE DURINGTHE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...TONIGHT
A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTED TIDES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THEATLANTIC COASTLINE AND THE DELAWARE BAY SHORE. IN SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE ... AT ... 9.2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...FLOODING OCCURS IN MILFORD...REHOBOTH BEACH...ANDMILLSBORO. SHOULD THE WATER LEVEL REACH ...11.5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...THIS IS COMPARABLE TO THE FLOODINGTHAT OCCURRED WITH THE NOREASTER OF MARCH 1962.
5:15 p.m.: Flash Flood Warning until 11 p.m. for Anne Arundel, southeastern Prince George’s, northwestern Calvert, Charles and northwestern St. Mary’s counties, where an additional 4-8” is possible.
5:05 p.m.: Flash Flood Warning until 11 p.m. for City of Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, King George and Stafford counties in Virginia, where an additional 1-3” of rain is possible.
D.C. Area Forecast: The moderate to heavy rain which has been focused mainly south and east of the District is now making progress to the north and west. Winds last hour at Reagan National were sustained at 29 mph and gusting to 37 mph, while weaker at Dulles (17 mph gusting to 28 mph) and BWI (18 mph gusting to 29 mph).
As we’ve mentioned before, this is not a panic situation as far as the immediate metro area is concerned. However, now is the time to get to where you plan to be for the night, as rain and wind continue to increase from southeast to northwest. The heaviest rain and strongest winds occur this evening and overnight when power outages are likely. Rainfall rates could reach near or past 1” per hour with storm totals generally 2-6” from west to east, while sustained winds probably reach 30-40 mph for a time with gusts of 45-70 mph. With both the rain and wind, expect less of it north and west and more of it south and east