Higher resolution model simulations bring the snow in the two rounds. The first round potentially comes through late this afternoon or this evening, around 3- 8 p.m . The second round is simulated predawn, in the 2 to 6 a.m. window.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS RAPIDLY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. ... HI-RES MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF PRECIP WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ... CANNOT RULE OUT FLURRIES...MAINLY N/W...AND PERHAPS EVEN A -SHSN ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT... HOWEVER...THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AFTER MODEST ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADDED TO THE MIX. UPSLOPE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD TONIGHT /THOUGH NOT HEAVY/...WITH FLURRIES FURTHER EAST OVER MUCH OF THE [FORECAST AREA]. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ANOTHER ISOLATED BAND OF SHSN EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW...AND CHANCES OF PINPOINTING WHERE IT WOULD BE ARE EVEN LOWER.
I tend to agree with this assessment given the dry air overhead. Current dew points are 5 to 10 degrees so while we may start to see snow showing up on radar, a lot of it will evaporate before reaching the ground.
So, let’s just say there is a 20% chance of flurries or light snow showers this afternoon and evening, and a 30% chance late tonight. The chance of any location seeing at least a dusting is just 10%.