Two weak upper level disturbances swinging through the region may generate some snow showers or flurries this afternoon and overnight. They look to be even less numerous and intense than yesterday, but there’s an outside chance someone in the region could experience heavy enough bursts to briefly coat the ground and, given freezing temperatures, cause slick travel.
Higher resolution model simulations bring the snow in the two rounds. The first round potentially comes through late this afternoon or this evening, around 3- 8 p.m . The second round is simulated predawn, in the 2 to 6 a.m. window.
The National Weather Service is somewhat underwhelmed with the snowfall potential associated with these disturbance, especially the first:
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS RAPIDLY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. ... HI-RES MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF PRECIP WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ... CANNOT RULE OUT FLURRIES...MAINLY N/W...AND PERHAPS EVEN A -SHSN ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT... HOWEVER...THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AFTER MODEST ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADDED TO THE MIX. UPSLOPE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD TONIGHT /THOUGH NOT HEAVY/...WITH FLURRIES FURTHER EAST OVER MUCH OF THE [FORECAST AREA]. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ANOTHER ISOLATED BAND OF SHSN EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW...AND CHANCES OF PINPOINTING WHERE IT WOULD BE ARE EVEN LOWER.
I tend to agree with this assessment given the dry air overhead. Current dew points are 5 to 10 degrees so while we may start to see snow showing up on radar, a lot of it will evaporate before reaching the ground.
So, let’s just say there is a 20% chance of flurries or light snow showers this afternoon and evening, and a 30% chance late tonight. The chance of any location seeing at least a dusting is just 10%.