Small chance of light snow or flurries this afternoon and tonight


The NAM model simulated radar images at 8 p.m. tonight and 3 a.m. Thursday morning. Note: it’s likely some or most of the snow on this simulated (i.e. not real) radar is “virga” - precipitation that evaporates before reaching the ground. (instantweathermaps.com)

Higher resolution model simulations bring the snow in the two rounds. The first round potentially comes through late this afternoon or this evening, around 3- 8 p.m . The second round is simulated predawn, in the 2 to 6 a.m. window.


The WRF-NMM model simulates snow showers moving through the region late this afternoon and around 5 a.m. Thursday morning. Note: it’s likely some or most of the snow on this simulated (i.e. not real) radar is “virga” - precipitation that evaporates before reaching the ground. (National Weather Service)

MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS RAPIDLY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. ... HI-RES MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF PRECIP WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ... CANNOT RULE OUT FLURRIES...MAINLY N/W...AND PERHAPS EVEN A -SHSN ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT... HOWEVER...THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL COME THROUGH THIS EVENING AFTER MODEST ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADDED TO THE MIX. UPSLOPE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD TONIGHT /THOUGH NOT HEAVY/...WITH FLURRIES FURTHER EAST OVER MUCH OF THE [FORECAST AREA]. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ANOTHER ISOLATED BAND OF SHSN EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW...AND CHANCES OF PINPOINTING WHERE IT WOULD BE ARE EVEN LOWER.

I tend to agree with this assessment given the dry air overhead. Current dew points are 5 to 10 degrees so while we may start to see snow showing up on radar, a lot of it will evaporate before reaching the ground.

So, let’s just say there is a 20% chance of flurries or light snow showers this afternoon and evening, and a 30% chance late tonight. The chance of any location seeing at least a dusting is just 10%.

Jason is currently the Washington Post’s weather editor. A native Washingtonian, Jason has been a weather enthusiast since age 10.
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