We continue to closely track two potential winter weather events this week. The first event, tomorrow, should consist of mostly snow but probably not enough to shovel. The second event (or series of events), Thursday night through Saturday, has the potential to be a more significant snow and/or ice producer (leaning towards ice), but could also be a flop.
Probabilities: 60% (Wednesday) and 35% (Thursday night through Saturday)
The Wednesday clipper (a fast moving disturbance from Canada) will probably have a lot of its moisture squeezed out as it crosses the mountains. Still, a period of snow is possible starting Wednesday morning and lasting into the afternoon. Because the clipper will be passing through during the warmest time of the day and the ground isn't that cold, its impacts should be pretty minor. Nonetheless, a few heavier snow bursts could reduce visibility at times and create a few slick spots. Here's my latest assessment of possible accumulations:
Dusting or no accumulation: 40%
Dusting to 1": 35%
A great deal of uncertainty remains for the late Thursday through Saturday period.
What's clear is that there will be some cold air to the north to at least initially support some frozen precipitation. But the same questions that I raised Sunday remain with respect to how much precipitation will reach us, what types of precipitation we can expect, whether we'll be dealing with one big storm or a series of smaller storms, exactly where the storm(s) will track, etc.
Computer models are going to continue to flip flop on this, but based on the overall pattern my best bet is that we'll see some snow late Thursday into Friday that will change to freezing rain and sleet and then drizzle before ending late Friday into early Saturday. Some accumulation of snow and/or ice is possible, but note this is a very low confidence forecast.