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Posted at 11:05 PM ET, 02/23/2010

Still on the edge of significant snow potential

* Winter Storm Watch for metro area Wed. night-Thur. (map) *
* February climate facts and near feats | Weather Wall | Get There *

For those of you who have had enough snow this year, what I'm about to say will be music to your ears: the latest model forecasts have backed off on the snow they're simulating for Wednesday night and Thursday and there is not a ton of support for heavy accumulations. Here's what I can still safely say:

*The biggest risk of significant snow (exceeding 4") continues to be from around Baltimore and to the north and east.

*In the metro region, we will likely at least have some snow showers and flurries Wednesday night and Thursday (and possibly continuing through Thursday night), but the chance of steady, accumulating snow is just 50/50.

*It will very likely be quite windy Thursday into Friday (20-30 mph sustained, with gusts to near or over 50 mph possible especially on Thursday).

*Uncertainty for this storm is larger than any previous storm this winter due to the complexity of the overall pattern, and lack of clarity about the exact track of the storm and how quickly it will develop. There is the possibility that the area could see disruptive wind-driven snow on Thursday at one extreme or just flurries at the other. We are currently favoring a scenario in between those two extremes -- but will need to fine tune our forecast.

We'll have additional information tomorrow morning and throughout the day. In the meantime, see our full forecast through the weekend.

By  |  11:05 PM ET, 02/23/2010

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