Thanksgiving week coastal storm may stay east of Washington, D.C.


European model simulation of ocean storm next Tuesday morning (WeatherBell.com)

Current model simulations and their ensembles strongly favor a storm forming far enough offshore to probably miss inland areas altogether. Shifts in the storm’s track could bring back the risk of stormy weather for cities from Washington, D.C. to Boston, but models have been trending east with the storm rather than west.

The latest data indicate the ocean storm will probably be close enough to coastal areas to produce windy weather, large waves and high seas. And the storm’s slow motion may mean the shore is in for an extended pounding - exactly what it doesn’t need after the beating from Superstorm Sandy and last week’s Nor’easter.

Here are some preliminary statements from the National Weather Service:

For Virginia Beach to Ocean City, Md.

PATTERN OF A VERY STRONG/1040 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH [LOW PRESSURE] OFF THE SE COAST WOULD MAKE WINDS TURN MORE TO THE NE (RATHER THAN N)...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.

For Delaware and New Jersey shore

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW LOOKS TO RESULT WITH LINGERING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WOULD FOCUS ANY AFFECTS ON THE COASTAL AND MARINE AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE BEACH EROSION AS BUILDING WAVES GET PUSHED TOWARD THE COAST

Again, away from coastal areas, odds have increased of having mainly dry weather, though it may be cloudy and cool, with flow coming in from the northeast in the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe. Amazingly, the operational GFS and European models show little to no precipitation from D.C. to Boston over the next 10 days.

Jason is currently the Washington Post’s weather editor. A native Washingtonian, Jason has been a weather enthusiast since age 10.
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