As of 11 a.m. EDT, Ernesto had maximum sustained winds of 65mph, and the minimum central pressure was 29.35” (994 mb) according to the National Hurricane Center. Positioned 190 miles east northeast of the Nicarague/Honduras Border, the storm is moving west northwest at 9 mph. It is strengthening very quickly now, and has a 7-mile-wide eye reported by reconnaissance aircraft.
The government of Belize has issued a hurricane watch for its entire coast (pink area map below), and a hurricane warning (red area map below) is in effect for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Punta Allen in Mexico.
Tropical storm warnings and watches are in place to the north and southwest of the hurricane watches and warnings (see the map below: orange-watch and blue-warning areas)
Since Sunday night, the vertical shear (difference between winds at low-levels and upper-levels) has decreased substantially, and the forward speed has slowed to 9 mph.
The image below shows a microwave satellite image of Ernesto from 7 a.m. EDT today. The grayscale background is a traditional infrared satellite image, but the colors overlaid indicate strong thunderstorm activity. Of particular note are the spiral rainbands and the circular arc feature (nascent eyewall) in the middle: both suggest a well-organized storm.
You will be able to monitor the storm from a long-range radar loop available on my website.
After crossing the southern Yucatan Peninsula and weakening, the forecast is for a continued westward track into the Bay of Campeche.
* Brian McNoldy is a senior tropical weather researcher at the University of Miami/Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. He is serving as a guest tropical weather blogger for the Capital Weather Gang.