NBC4’s chief meteorologist Doug Kammerer was the latest of local television prognosticators to issue a winter outlook last night. His conclusion: about the same as everyone else - normal to below normal snowfall is most likely across the region.
Kammerer predicts 7-13” across the region, comparable to the forecast by WJLA’s Doug Hill for 10-15”, not to mention Capital Weather Gang’s 10-14”. The uniformity in forecasts is a little eerie. Either we’re all going to nail it or fail miserably. (WUSA’s Topper Shutt has yet to release his outlook)
As for Kammerer, his methodology seems pretty thorough. He examines many of the same factors we do in our outlook. He writes:
We look at things like the El Nino Southern Oscillation in the Pacific, the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Atlantic, the Artic Oscillation, the Pacific Decadel Oscillation and the Pacific North American Pattern. ... We also look at things like snow cover in Siberia in late October as well as sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic and the Pacific.
He thinks the lower end of his snowfall range of 7 to 13 inches may be more likely, but cautions a trend towards more extreme weather events means the higher end of the range is in play:
Carmaggedon [aka Commutageddon] and a few other storms recently have me a little scared to go so low. Why? Because we are seeing stronger and stronger storms every year across the country and across the world.
Watch the video of Kammerer’s outlook...
View more videos at: http://nbcwashington.com.
WJLA senior meteorologist Bob Ryan appears to share Kammerer’s concern about an increase in extremes. In a recent blog post, he walks through the onslaught of extreme weather events in 2011 and writes:
So, what speaks to all these extremes? Meteorological experts are telling us to get used to it.
“Something is going on, but it’s still really hard to take out the fact that some years, you actually get a lot of weather extremes,” Paul Kocin of the National Centers for Environmental Protection says.
View Ryan’s video report on 2011 extreme weather here...