Snow odds increasing to almost 50/50
Model guidance* this afternoon has shifted the track of the developing storm on Sunday slightly west and closer to the coast. As a result, we think there is a better chance the metro region sees accumulating snow than we did just a few hours ago.
This remains a very delicate situation where very modest shifts in the storm track could make the difference between no snow and 4" or more. Capital Weather Gang's winter weather expert Wes Junker calls this forecast - which has been oscillating all week - "one of the most difficult he can remember." Junker has been forecasting for more than 30 years.
Based on available information, we now believe there is a 40-50 percent chance of at least 1" of snow Sunday, and 25% chance of more than 4". Places closer to the coast including southeast Virginia, the Delmarva peninsula, coastal New Jersey, Long Island and especially southern New England have higher chances of getting snow, with the possibility of very heavy snow and wind.
We'll be examining new model data this evening and will post a short update at 11 p.m.
(*An extra layer of uncertainty is involved in this forecast because NOAA indicated there were some initialization problems with the models this morning. We have not been able to determine whether these problems impacted this afternoon's model runs some of which simulate snowy conditions Sunday)