Frigid air is blowing into the area tonight on gusty winds from the northwest following the passage of a strong cold front this afternoon. This will ensure that any precpitation we see Friday night and Saturday from a storm approaching from the south will fall in the form of snow. The question remains, though: How much precipitation will make it this far north?
Today's morning model runs moved a little north with the storm's precipitation shield, before edging back south with it this evening. The net result is that the models pretty much have the D.C. metro area sitting around the same place it was this time last night -- some areas, especially southern sections, could see a couple of inches, while other areas, especially northern sections, could get just flurries or no snow at all.
Southern Maryland?... and once you get down to around Fredericksburg, Va., or a little bit south? You're looking at a more confident chance of 1-4".
Check back tomorrow morning for an accumulation map, and see our full forecast into early next week.