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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 01/10/2011

Update: Snow chance Tuesday night steady

While the models have varied a bit over the last couple days, they've come into reasonable agreement. And we're holding firm in forecasting a light to moderate snow event with 1-4" most likely across the metro region.

Accumulations in this range should generally be greatest as you go northeast of the District and least to the southwest. The most likely time for accumulating snow is between about 6 p.m. Tuesday and midnight Wednesday though light snow could begin before that around the middle of the afternoon. There remains a small chance (20-30%) the storm develops too late and most of the region gets less than 1" of snow.

Keep reading for a summary of this morning's model output and a chance to offer your opinion on this weather...

This morning's NAM model develops the storm fairly quickly Tuesday afternoon and evening - in time to produce 0.32" liquid equivalent at Reagan National, 0.26" at Dulles, and 0.37" at BWI. Assuming 1" of liquid is equivalent to 10" of snow (which is an approximation), those amounts would suggest 3-4" of snow.

This morning's GFS model indicates 0.21" for DCA, 0.18" for IAD, and 0.23" for BWI - which suggests 2-3" of snow.

Bear in mind, we're still more than 24 hours before the snow likely starts so the models will continue to fluctuate a bit. So adjustments in our 1-4" forecast remain possible. But pretty much since Friday, we've felt the forecast evolution of this storm and the overall pattern support a 1-3" or 2-4" type storm. Of course, last minute surprises can't be ruled out - that's just how it is with East Coast storm development.

Finish this sentence, #WinterinDC ...

Tweet Does winter/snow in D.C. drive you batty? Or is the whole thing just a bit overblown? Share your thoughts with us in the comments below or by using #WinterInDC on Twitter. We'll post some of the responses back here on the blog later...

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By  |  11:00 AM ET, 01/10/2011

Categories:  Winter Storms, Winter Storms

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