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Posted at 02:13 PM ET, 02/19/2012

Update: Still a chance for some “conversational” snow, mainly this evening

10:40 p.m. update: The light snow and rain/snow mix that made it as far north as around I-66 to the west of D.C. and Rt. 50 to the east of D.C. is steadily retreating south. Precipitation should continue to decrease in the southern suburbs over the next couple hours before ending all together. Areas to the south and southwest of D.C. that have seen wet roads or even a light accumulation should watch out for a few a.m. slick spots as overnight lows dip to around 30-32F.

Sad you didn’t see more (or any) of the white stuff? Go live vicariously through CWG’s Ian Livingston who went snow hunting deep into Virginia today. See his tweets and pics here.

9:35 p.m. update: Snow or a rain/snow mix continues from around D.C. to the south and southeast with some light accumulations reported, while precipitation has dried up quite a bit from Fauquier co toward points west and southwest. It doesn’t appear snow will make it much north of the District itself. Route 50 or just north of there looks to be the dividing line between precip (to the south) and no precip (to the north). The Burke/Springfield area, where snow has covered car tops, may end up being about as far north as accumulating snow reaches.

8:25 p.m. update: We’ve gotten reports of snow, or rain mixed with snow, as close to D.C. as near Alexandria, Burke and Springfield, Manassas, Woodbridge and Dale City, Va. So far no snow accumulation in the metro area. Further west around Warrenton is a different story, where snow is starting to coat the ground. Where’s the real snow? @midatlanticwx reports 5 inches in Charlottesville and 1-2” in one hour in Richmond.

5:30 p.m. update: Snow has very slowly worked northeastward, but still remains a good 30-60 miles south of the District. The northern edge stretches from Culpeper to just north of Fredericksburg (near Aquia Harbor), Colonial Beach, and Lusby (in Md.). It will probably advance a bit farther north - with light snow or flurries probably reaching places like Gainesville, Dale City, and Waldorf. North of those locations, it’s .really hard to say exactly where the northern edge will cut off - but odds of seeing snow decrease progressively.

From 2:15 p.m.: We have no change to our forecast posted earlier, but wanted to provide a brief, more detailed update as to what to expect this afternoon and evening.

Based on radar trends and model guidance, it looks like it should remain dry through the afternoon, except from Fredericksburg and to the south where precipitation may develop late this afternoon. At the moment, steady precipitation - including some heavy snow - is concentrated between southwest central Virginia.

Related: Forecast: Snow may be mostly a no-show

That precipitation is trying to make a move to the northeast, but is running into dry air. Nevertheless, this evening, it does have a fighting chance of making it as far north as somewhere between Fredericksburg and D.C.’s northern suburbs. If I had to guess, I’d say the northern edge of steady precipitation will end up somewhere around Dale City or Quantico - but an error of 45-60 miles is possible. Any snow may begin briefly as rain or a rain/snow mix.

Bottom line: Don’t be surprised to see some steady snow, perhaps a coating to an inch in D.C.’s southern suburbs this evening. Around the beltway, I’d expect any flakes to be more conversational, with little or no accumulation (but a small shift could put us into some light accumulations). The most likely timing would be between 6 and 10 p.m. tonight. North of town, probably just flurries, if that.

Keep reading for detailed snow odds, by region:

North of beltway (to Baltimore/Frederick):

Chance of no snow: 50%

Chance of just flurries: 30%

Chance of coating to 1”: 20%

Around beltway, including District (and east and west):

Chance of no snow: 33%

Chance of just flurries: 33%

Chance of coating to 1”: 33%

South of beltway (to Fredericksburg):

Chance of no snow: 20%

Chance of just flurries: 30%

Chance of coating to 1+”: 50% (higher near Fredericksburg, lower southern Fairfax county)

By and  |  02:13 PM ET, 02/19/2012

Categories:  Latest, Winter Storms

 
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