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Posted at 03:04 PM ET, 12/14/2012

White Christmas tracker: December 14

D.C.’s odds of a White Christmas strikes me as a trivial topic in light of today’s news in Newtown, Ct. but we promised daily updates, so here goes....

The odds of White Christmas in Washington, D.C. continue to be close to average, or around 10 percent.

The potential for any snow is very low for the next week. Although weather conditions will be unsettled through the first half of next week, cold air will be lacking and any precipitation will be in the form of rain.

Late next week, a pattern change may occur - with a strong cold front moving in. The several days prior to Christmas may be colder than normal. The question is whether any storminess will complement the cold air. At the moment, it seems a dry pattern is more likely than a stormy one.

The GFS model - for the fifth straight day - shows no snow cover over the D.C. area Christmas Day.


Forecast snow depth at 7 p.m. Christmas Day from GFS model (WeatherBell.com)

The CFS model - which showed no snow in any of its simulations yesterday - has hints of at least a little snow cover around D.C. in the 5-day period leading into Christmas Day in a few of its runs.


CFS model simulations showing maximum snow depth in the period 12/21-12/26. It suggest - in 3 of 4 simulations - Washington, D.C. could have some light snow in this period. (WeatherBell.com)

Our next update will be Monday afternoon.

Related: How often does Washington, D.C. have a White Christmas?

Standard disclaimer: these forecasts more than a week into the future are very unreliable. They have not demonstrated the ability to accurately predict the weather this far out in time.

We’re showing you the models so we can see how they evolve (i.e. do they shift snowier, less snowy, or constantly flip flop?) and then, in hindsight, evaluate how well or poorly they simulated reality.

Previous White Christmas Trackers:

December 10, 2012
December 11, 2012

December 12, 2012
December 13, 2012

By  |  03:04 PM ET, 12/14/2012

Categories:  Latest, Holidays

 
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