Last March – Washington, D.C.’s warmest on record, we achieved highs in the 70s or higher on 12 occasions through March 26; this year we’ve had zero such days. Conversely, this year we’ve had 11 days with highs stuck in the 40s or lower compared to just 2 last year.
And the much chillier than normal weather only shows signs of modestly relaxing through early-to-mid April.
The GFS model’s ensemble mean (the model run multiple times with tweaks to inputs and then averaged) shows highs mostly in the 50s through April 10.
The North Atlantic Oscillation is forecast to remain mostly in its negative phase, signaling a prevailing dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S.
Of course, there is plenty of spread among the ensembles, so it’s certainly possible we could have some warmer than average weather mixed in. Some of the red lines in the NAO forecast (above) move into positive territory towards the end of the time series.
But model guidance doesn’t show any torching, summer-like weather, that’s for sure.
My advice: keep your summer clothes in the closet for now.