D.C. area forecast: Fair spring days with a few flaws along the way

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the days weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.

6
Clouds, maybe a shower and tricky temps make for a not-so-perfect, but not-so-bad spring day.

Express Forecast

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy. 30% chance of a scattered shower. 60s or 70s.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated shower? Mid-to-upper 50s.

Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy. 20% chance of a shower. 70s.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Temperature Map

Temperatures: Latest D.C. area temperature map. See interactive map on our Weather Wall.

Snowstorms are tough, of course. But a stationary front lurking nearby can be just as challenging from a forecasting perspective. Get the location of the front wrong and your temperature forecast can be off by as much as 20 degrees. Today presents just such a challenge. Clouds and shower chances keep the forecast somewhat complicated into early Saturday, before high pressure simplifies things for Sunday.

Today (Wednesday): A frontal boundary nearby makes the temperature forecast a tricky one. We’re leaning toward the front setting up far enough north and east to allow much of the area to reach highs in the 70s, except perhaps east toward the Bay and northeast toward Baltimore where highs might stall in the 60s. There’s some chance, though, the front sets up further south and west, which would cap most of the area below 70. Partly to mostly cloudy skies could produce a few scattered showers (30% chance). At the very least the air has somewhat of a humid feel. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tonight: An isolated shower or two remains possible with plenty of clouds overhead. Lows are above normal, in the mid-to-upper 50s. Confidence: Medium-High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Thursday): A bit of an onshore flow keeps some clouds around on Thursday. We’ll go with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a 20% chance of a shower. Temperatures may struggle to rise in the morning due to the clouds and potential for a bit of mist, but should get into the 70s (possibly the mid-to-upper 70s) for afternoon highs. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Skies stay at least partly cloudy and still need to mention a slight chance of a shower. A steady breeze from the south props temperatures up with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

As a cold front approaches from the west on Friday, warm air streams in ahead of it thanks to increasing winds from the south. So highs should climb to the mid-70s to near 80 despite more clouds than sun. Gauging the current timing of the front, it doesn’t look like we’d see more than an isolated shower or two through early afternoon, then a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms mid-to-late afternoon increases to 60% Friday night. Confidence: Low-Medium

Depending on the timing of the front, showers could clear out by sunrise on Saturday as early-morning lows dip to near 50, or they could linger into early-to-mid morning. Either way skies should eventually turn mostly sunny, but it’s a cooler feel with breezy conditions and highs in the 60s. Saturday night brings a brief but noticeable chill with lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s (suburbs to city). Confidence: Low-Medium

Sunday shapes up as the most straightforward day of the forecast period, with high pressure providing partly to mostly sunny skies, light winds and highs near 60 to the mid-60s. Confidence: Medium

Dan Stillman is a meteorologist and editor for the Capital Weather Gang. He earned an M.S. in Meteorology from Texas A&M University, and a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences from the University of Michigan.
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