D.C. area forecast: Enjoy today’s sunshine, it might be harder to come by ahead; frost advisory tonight N & W suburbs

April 21, 2013

9:00 p.m. update: The National Weather Service has extended the overnight frost advisory to include Fairfax County (outside the beltway), Montgomery County, Howard County and Prince William County. Skies are slightly less cloudy than predicted earlier today, which will allow temperatures in some places to cool sufficiently for frost.  For the new counties added, we expect frost to be patchy and limited to the normally cooler areas rather than widespread.  Related: Weather service predicts overnight frost that could imperil plants

2:50 p.m. update: Frost advisory issued for Frederick, Loudoun and northern Fauquier counties tonight due to low temps forecast to be in the low-to-mid 30s. Related: When is the Washington D.C. area’s last spring freeze?

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the days weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.

7
A dry and decent day. Docked a few points for the possibility of a slight chill and increasing clouds.

Express Forecast

Today: Mix of clouds and sun. Mid-50s to near 60.

Tonight: Increasing clouds. Mid-30s to mid-40s.

Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy. Mid-50s to low 60s.

FORECAST IN DETAIL


Clouds:Latest mid-Atlantic infrared satellite shows movement of clouds over past two hours. Refresh page to update. See more maps on our Weather Wall.

Today features a pleasant start to the week with partly cloudy skies and tolerable temperatures; take the opportunity to enjoy any outdoor activities!  Revel in any persistent sunshine while you can today before we enter a rather stagnant weather pattern featuring cool and cloudy maritime conditions, possibly through the middle of the week.  The next chance of measurable rainfall comes Wednesday night a next cold front.

Today (Sunday): Copy yesterday’s weather, paste it for today, and add a little more cloud cover. We have another nice day in store with mild northeast winds and the possibility of some mid-level cloudiness.  This wind shift away from yesterday’s northwesterly flow should help cause the added clouds.  Temperatures should feel bearable, in the mid-50s to near 60. Confidence: High

Tonight: The maritime northeast winds continue to pump in more moisture into the atmosphere leading to increasing clouds overnight.  No rain is expected, but don’t expect to see much of the moon either.  Throwing some geography into the mix, the closer you are to the mountains the closer you will be to the mid-30s; the closer you are to the Chesapeake Bay, the closer you will be to mid-40s. Confidence: High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Monday): Copy Sunday’s weather, paste it for tomorrow, and add more clouds still.  Are you sensing a trend?  Temperatures will hover in the same mid-50s to low 60s range similar to the weekend, and winds are still out of the northeast.  Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: It will be slightly warmer than the past couple of nights, with temperatures nudging into the upper 30s for western areas at higher elevations and potentially climbing to as warm as 50 near the bay.  Still mostly cloudy. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

On Tuesday do we finally break the cycle of gray?  It appears Tuesday morning is still heavily clouded, but throughout the day they should thin out and eventually move out of the area.  There won’t be a super strong forcing mechanism to move the clouds, so it could be lunchtime or later before the sun finally peeks out.  How quickly the clouds clear out will ultimately determine the high temperatures, so for now expect mid-60s inland and upper-50s closer to the bay where it will take longer for those clouds to erode.  Tuesday night we see a return to mild overnight lows: upper 40s to near 50. Confidence: Medium

By Wednesday we finally see a break in the cloudy and cool maritime pattern.  The day is probably mostly cloudy, but at least the clouds come with a chance of rain! A cold front approaching from the west increases our chance for showers to near 50% across the area.  A shift back to southerly winds gives us our warmest day of the week thus far — probably up near 70 just about everywhere. Confidence: Low

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Ian Livingston · April 21, 2013