D.C. area forecast: Chance of showers today but tropical rains from Andrea hold off ’til Friday

Today’s Daily Digit

A somewhat subjective rating of the days weather, on a scale of 1 to 10.

7
Less sun, but you sure can’t beat these temperatures and this marks the last day with limited rain concerns.

Express Forecast

Today: Increasing clouds. 30% chance of showers. Highs: 77-81.

Tonight: Scattered showers likely. Lows: 65-69.

Tomorrow: Increasing showers/t’storms. Highs: 78-82.

FORECAST IN DETAIL


Radar & lightning:Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today marks our last day of relatively comfortable weather for the week. The tropics are headed our way big time tomorrow. The only question is how strong the remnants of tropical storm Andrea will be and where they’ll track. In any event, look forward to getting wet tomorrow and in some areas really wet, like in inches. Most models get the main rain out of our hair by early Saturday but we can’t entirely escape shower potential all weekend long.

Today (Thursday): The clouds have moved in aggressively and are here for the day. Increasing humidity is on the agenda as well.  There’s a 30 percent chance of showers, best odds in the west and northwest suburbs and toward the mountains. Winds are from the southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Highs are quite pleasant with upper 70s to lower 80s on tap. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Things start getting tricky in a hurry. Tendrils of tropical moisture start to stream up from the south as tropical storm Andrea in the Gulf comes ashore in the Florida panhandle. First, weak disturbances coming in from the west could set off some evening showers (40% chance). Then the deeper tropical moisture arrives, with a 60 percent chance of showers after midnight. They may not be widespread but they are likely to produce a few good downpours with a quick half inch of rain possible. What is undeniable is a serious upturn in humidity. Breezes remain from the southeast. Confidence: Medium

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Friday): The models are still having a hard time deciding on just where the main moisture channel ends up with some favoring the Blue Ridge but others near the Atlantic coast. No matter who gets the brunt of it, the entire area is likely (90% chance) to see some significant showers with a few thunderstorms mixed in. Severe weather is not likely. The heaviest rains should come sometime between late morning and the evening hours. Note, while an inch or two of rain is quite possible, there is an outside chance that remnants track far enough east for much lesser amounts. Highs peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds shouldn’t be too strong as the surface circulation of the remnants of Andrea quickly falls apart but some notable gusts to near 30 mph could occur in the downpours. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Lingering showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two are possible through the night but they are much more limited in coverage (60 percent in the evening falling to 40 percent or less after midnight). Winds are nearly calm with lows are in the mid-to-upper 60s. Confidence: Low-Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Saturday is expected to still have a risk of showers as some of the tropical moisture is left behind but the main rain event is well up in New England. The sun should appear from time to time but as soon as it does the heating should push up clouds and set off a few showers in a hurry. Despite the ever present chance of showers, only about half of the area is likely to pick up measurable rain amounts. Highs are mainly lower to a few mid-80s. Skies should clear in the evening and rain chances diminish so get out and do something. Lows only fall to the mid-to-upper 60s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Sunday is more of the same with sun leading to heating leading to more clouds leading to scattered light showers followed by clearing. This process is likely to be repeated a few times and again about half of the area could end up with measurable rain amounts. Highs reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies clear again in the evening and lows are in the mid-to-upper 60s. Confidence: Low-Medium

Monday comes in on the toasty side as an approaching cold front from the west pulls up more heat and the sun is strong for the first half of the day at least. Highs reach the mid-to-upper 80s, ouch. Looks for showers and t’storms by late in the day with a 60 percent chance of significant rains.  Confidence: Medium

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